A week before the official start of the Andalusian election campaign, Spain’s Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas has placed the incumbent conservative president, Juanma Moreno, within striking distance of an absolute majority. The poll, published on Friday, gives the Partido Popular a most probable outcome of 55 seats in the 109-seat regional parliament, with a range of 51 to 59. If confirmed on May 17th, that result would allow Moreno to govern alone, though the margins are razor-thin.

The centre-left PSOE, which sank to its worst ever regional result in 2022, is seen recovering slightly to 31 seats, while Vox, the hard-right party, appears stuck at 13 — down one from the outgoing legislature. The survey, compiled under the controversial leadership of José Félix Tezanos, has historically been accused of a leftward tilt, which makes its projection of a PP stronghold all the more striking from a Madrid perspective. In Seville, meanwhile, the regional government is already framing the numbers as a vindication of Moreno’s centrist, managerial style, a strategy that has kept the far right at arm’s length while absorbing its voters.

Viewed from the national capital, the Andalusian contest is widely interpreted as a bellwether for Pedro Sánchez’s fragile coalition government; a decisive PP win in Spain’s most populous region would embolden Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party ahead of any future general election. Against this backdrop, the former prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has lashed out at what he called the “shameful pact of national priority”, warning that such a strategy is merely a first step toward normalising far-right influence. His remarks, delivered in Madrid, reflect the deep unease on the left that Moreno, even if he secures an outright majority, could later rely on Vox to push through controversial legislation — a scenario the PP has so far avoided in this term.

Yet the poll also reveals a stubborn floor for the PSOE, which, despite improvements, remains some way from challenging for power. Analysts in Barcelona note that the stagnation of Vox mirrors a broader trend across Spain, where the far right has lost momentum as the PP consolidates the conservative vote. The campaign now opening will test whether Moreno can hold his narrow advantage under the heat of daily debate, or whether last-minute revelations and the PSOE’s final push — aided by national party figures — can erode his lead.

With absolute majority hanging by a thread, Andalusia’s political future is poised on a knife-edge, and the result will resonate far beyond the Guadalquivir valley.