Argentina’s economic activity rebounded sharply in March, notching its largest monthly gain since President Javier Milei took office and reaching an all-time high. According to the national statistics institute INDEC, the monthly estimator (EMAE) advanced 3.5% from February and 5.5% from a year earlier, far exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% monthly rise. The strong performance erased the 2.7% contraction in February, which had been the worst month since 2023, and lifted first-quarter activity 1.7% above the same period last year. The recovery was broad-based, with fourteen of fifteen sectors in expansion.

The upturn was led by agriculture, mining, and manufacturing, which together contributed 2.7 percentage points to annual growth. Agriculture alone surged 17.9% year-on-year, bolstered by a better maize harvest and recovering beef production, while fishing posted a remarkable 30.9% rise. The only sector to contract was public administration, which shrank 1.2% from a year earlier. This pattern contrasts sharply with developments elsewhere in Latin America. In Colombia, first-quarter growth of 2.2% was driven overwhelmingly by government spending, which accounted for 15.9% of GDP — exceeding investment for the first time since 2006 as capital formation languishes at around 16% of GDP, down from over 21% five years ago.

The government of President Milei has seized on the March data to argue that the economy is now firmly in recovery. Finance Minister Luis Caputo declared that activity had reached a historic high, reinforcing the official narrative of a lasting turnaround. Yet analysts caution that the rebound may be uneven. While the agro-industrial and mining sectors thrive, the broader employment picture remains weak, and manufacturing capacity utilisation recently hit a four-year low. The challenge for Buenos Aires will be to translate sector-specific gains into sustained, inclusive growth, especially as global headwinds from trade tensions and geopolitical instability persist. Viewed from Washington, the strong March figures lend credibility to Milei’s reform programme, but the durability of the recovery will depend on whether investment broadens beyond the commodity sectors.