In a rare display of bipartisan resolve, the Albanese government has secured the Coalition’s support for the most ambitious restructuring of the National Disability Insurance Scheme since its inception, a reform designed to slash A$35 billion from the programme’s trajectory and cap its annual growth at 2 per cent. Viewed from Canberra, the move is framed as an act of fiscal triage: the NDIS, which cost A$50 billion last year and was expanding at 10 per cent annually, had become too expensive and too porous to criminal fraud, inflated invoices, and incorrect payments that the government estimates at A$4.6 billion a year. Yet for the 760,000 participants who have come to rely on the scheme — many of whom describe it as a life-changing lifeline — the prospect of losing vital supports is deeply unsettling.

From the state capitals, the political calculus is equally fraught. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned that states and territories will collectively forfeit A$2.8 billion over two years if they fail to honour a national cabinet agreement to co-fund cheaper foundational supports for people with mild to moderate conditions, a cohort that was never intended for the NDIS. South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas has commended the federal government’s “political courage”, but the pressure is now on state leaders to develop alternative services with the same urgency as the federal cuts. In the regions, providers fear that smaller operators — already struggling with thin margins — will be unable to afford the stricter compliance costs of a new payments scheme and tougher registration rules. NDIS Minister Mark Butler will introduce legislation in May to tighten financial controls, a move that could cull many providers from the market.

For participants like Ellie Kaduszyn, a Canberran with autism, and Robin Eames, who uses exercise physiology and hydrotherapy funded by the scheme, the proposed changes evoke a deep anxiety about losing access to social activities, personal care, and the independence they have painstakingly built. The government intends to shift roughly 160,000 participants off the NDIS by 2028, using a new assessment tool based on functional need rather than diagnosis alone. Peak bodies for occupational therapists and psychologists have warned against a “one-size-fits-all” model, and the design of the tool — due by the end of this year and to be rolled out in 2028 — will be critical in determining who stays and who falls through the cracks.

Looking ahead, the overhaul is both regrettable and necessary, as a Sydney Morning Herald editorial has observed. Without it, the scheme’s runaway costs would have imperilled its long-term sustainability; with it, the risk is that many autistic people and their carers will be left adrift. The Coalition’s support ensures legislative passage, but the real test lies in whether the states can build the foundational supports that are meant to catch those exiting the NDIS. Until that infrastructure is in place, the narrative of reform will remain one of austerity ahead of compassion, a gamble that future savings will not come at the expense of a vulnerable minority.