China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, has described Taiwan as “the biggest risk factor” in Sino-American relations during a preparatory phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, underscoring the fault line that looms over an expected summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in mid-May. Speaking via state broadcaster CCTV, Wang insisted that both sides must “safeguard the hard-won stability” and make thorough preparations for high-level engagements, while warning that Washington must honour its commitments on the island. The call, confirmed by an anonymous US official cited by An-Nahar, was explicitly intended to set the stage for Trump’s visit to Beijing, a trip that both capitals hope will reset a relationship strained by tariff disputes and strategic competition.

Viewed from Beijing, the exchange reflects a deliberate effort to ring-fence areas of cooperation — particularly on Middle East stability and trade — by drawing a bright line around what the Communist Party regards as its core sovereign interests. Russian state media’s coverage of the call, via Interfax, highlighted Wang’s framing of the relationship as one that “must expand areas of cooperation and manage differences”, a phrasing that echoes Xi’s long-standing call for a new type of major-power relations. Iranian outlets such as Donya-e Eqtesad, meanwhile, noted that Wang linked the stability of bilateral ties to the personal diplomacy between Xi and Trump, a signal that Beijing sees the summit as a crucial test of whether transactional pragmatism can coexist with ideological rivalry.

From Washington’s perspective, Rubio’s acknowledgment that US-China relations are “the most important bilateral relationship in the world” — as relayed by Chinese state media — suggests the Trump administration is seeking to compartmentalise tensions over Taiwan, technology, and trade into manageable dialogue. Yet analysts in London and other European capitals caution that the characterisation of Taiwan as the “biggest point of risk” is not merely diplomatic hyperbole. It reflects China’s deepening impatience with US arms sales to Taipei and the growing frequency of naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait, trends that raise the probability of miscalculation. The phone call’s timing, weeks before the summit, indicates both sides are calibrating public positions before direct presidential talks.

Looking ahead, the forthcoming Trump-Xi meeting will test whether the framework of “mutual respect and peaceful coexistence” — the phrase Wang used with Rubio — can be translated into concrete agreements, particularly on export controls and North Korea. But the Taiwan question remains the most volatile variable. Beijing’s warning was unambiguous: without US restraint on the island, the broader cooperative agenda — from climate finance to supply-chain resilience — may not withstand the strain. The world’s two largest economies are preparing for a summit that will either deepen their managed competition or expose its limits.