Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israeli war with Iran have yielded limited progress, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledging “some good signs” while cautioning against excessive optimism. The assessment, delivered to reporters on Thursday, came as Pakistani mediators shuttled between Washington and Tehran seeking a breakthrough. Yet behind the cautious diplomacy, the fundamental obstacles remain unchanged: Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile – which the Supreme Leader has reportedly ordered not to be transferred abroad – and Tehran’s de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil passes.

From Washington, the Trump administration has drawn a red line on both issues. President Donald Trump declared that the United States would ultimately take possession of Iran’s enriched uranium, stating, “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and we will probably destroy it after we get it – but we will not allow them to have it.” Tehran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful, and the Supreme Leader’s veto has blocked any deal that would ship the material overseas. On the Strait of Hormuz, the US opposes any tolling system Iran might impose, fearing it could choke global energy supplies and destabilise economies already rattled by the prolonged closure of the waterway during the conflict.

Viewed from Islamabad, Pakistan’s role as mediator has become central. Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Friday, two days after delivering Washington’s latest message. Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, a powerful figure in Pakistan’s foreign policy, is also expected in the Iranian capital. The Pakistani leadership is attempting to bridge the gap between the two sides, but analysts in London note that the gulf on the core issues makes a comprehensive agreement elusive. The ceasefire that halted hostilities on April 8 has held, but the window for a permanent deal is narrowing.

The economic stakes are immense. A sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz would rapidly drain global oil reserves, sending prices soaring and triggering recessionary pressures. This urgency has spurred Chinese diplomatic interest as well; reports indicate Beijing and Islamabad are preparing a joint mediation effort. However, Iran’s insistence on retaining its uranium – seen by the West as a hedge against future regime change – and its leverage over Hormuz remain powerful bargaining chips. For now, the talks inch forward, but the underlying tensions could tip either way. As Rubio put it: “Let’s see what happens over the next few days.”