The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, heralded as a diplomatic achievement just weeks ago, has all but collapsed into a daily rhythm of attack and counter-attack. Over the past 72 hours, Israeli warplanes have struck more than 120 targets across southern Lebanon, levelling buildings and infrastructure in what the military describes as a response to Hezbollah violations. On the other side, Hezbollah has escalated its use of small, cheap, fibre-optic guided FPV drones – a tactic imported from the Ukrainian battlefield – which have already killed two Israeli soldiers and a civilian contractor, and injured many more. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged on Sunday that a dedicated counter-drone project has been initiated, but conceded it ‘will take time’. The asymmetry is stark: Israel’s technological superiority is being eroded by drones costing a few hundred dollars, and ground forces now operate under metal netting in a bid to protect positions.

Viewed from Washington, the violence complicates an already fragile diplomatic push. The American embassy in Beirut has been urging direct talks between Israel’s Netanyahu and Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun, dangling the prospect of a full Israeli withdrawal, humanitarian aid, and reconstruction. But Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc has vowed to ‘thwart’ any such negotiations, and the group’s calculations are now increasingly aligned with Iran, whose confrontation with the United States and Israel defined the broader conflict that began in late February. From Tehran’s perspective, keeping Lebanon as an active front strengthens its bargaining position in any future talks. Domestic opposition to Hezbollah within Lebanon has hardened: for the first time in decades, the Lebanese government held face-to-face talks with Israel in April, a move the group firmly rejected, but which underscores the erosion of its political standing even among Shia constituents displaced by the fighting.

Analysts in London and Paris note that Israel’s operations have been confined to south Lebanon under the ceasefire terms, but the pattern of destruction is becoming more systematic. Satellite imagery reviewed by the New York Times shows that 20 border villages have been completely levelled, including government buildings and civilian infrastructure – a deliberate creation of a buffer zone reminiscent of tactics seen in Gaza. Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to launch rockets and drones at Israeli troops stationed inside Lebanon, though without causing mass casualties. The cost for Hezbollah has been severe: thousands of fighters killed, hundreds of thousands of supporters displaced, and its arsenal depleted. Yet the group sees an opportunity by tying its fate to Tehran’s war, betting that Iranian pressure could eventually force a more favourable ceasefire than the one now in tatters.

The question that hangs over the coming weeks is whether either side has the appetite for a broader escalation. Israeli military circles admit to exhaustion, with Haaretz reporting that Hezbollah’s tactical drone use has created a ‘state of damage and terror’ among troops and northern residents alike. For its part, Hezbollah may be calculating that continued attrition, combined with diplomatic leverage from Iran, can restore its deterrent power without triggering full-scale war. But the evacuation orders that now cover more than a dozen south Lebanese villages suggest Israel is preparing for a protracted occupation, not a stand-down. The ceasefire, it seems, was less an endpoint than a pause — and the next chapter may be the most punishing yet.