The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, in place since 17 April, is unravelling by the hour. On Saturday, Israeli airstrikes killed at least seven people across three villages in southern Lebanon, hours after Hezbollah launched rockets and explosive-laden drones at Israeli troops stationed in the area. The Israel Defense Forces confirmed that one rocket was intercepted and several projectiles detonated near its positions without causing injuries. Both sides continue to trade fire despite the truce, with the Israeli military stating that it struck around fifty Hezbollah targets on Friday alone. Viewed from Beirut, the violence underscores the deepening impasse: Hezbollah refuses to disarm, and Israel insists on security control over a buffer zone now partially occupied by its forces.

The most destabilising element of this new phase is Hezbollah’s increasing reliance on small, cheap, fibre-optic drones inspired by the war in Ukraine. First-person view (FPV) drones, guided by cables rather than radio signals, evade Israeli electronic jamming and have killed two soldiers and a civilian contractor in the past week. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged on Sunday that he had ordered a dedicated counter-drone project, but warned that a solution ‘will take time’. Critics in Israel, however, point to the documented use of such drones in Ukraine and question why the military was not better prepared. The psychological toll is evident: Israeli troops in southern Lebanon now operate under metal nets draped over tanks and positions, a crude field expedient against a threat that one of the world’s most advanced armies has yet to neutralise.

For Hezbollah, the tactical shift comes at a staggering strategic cost. According to internal casualty estimates, the group has lost several thousand fighters since the conflict escalated in March, and hundreds of thousands of its Shi’ite constituents have been displaced from southern Lebanon. Domestically, the group’s decision to open a front with Israel has hardened opposition in Beirut, where the government held face-to-face talks with Israel for the first time in decades — a move Hezbollah vehemently opposed. Analysts in London note that Hezbollah is trapped between its need to maintain deterrence and the reality of a war that is bleeding its support base dry.

Looking ahead, the pattern suggests a grinding war of attrition rather than a full ceasefire. Hezbollah’s cheap drones force Israel into costly defensive measures and periodic strikes, while Israel’s air campaign slowly degrades Hezbollah’s infrastructure but cannot eliminate the political drivers of its resistance. From Washington, the risk is that a prolonged, low-intensity conflict in southern Lebanon will further destabilise an already brittle region. Without a diplomatic framework that addresses Hezbollah’s armed status and Israel’s security demands, these daily violations will become the new normal — a ceasefire in name only, sustained by exhaustion but broken by design.