The global aviation industry is navigating its most severe fuel supply disruption in decades, as the war in Iran continues to ripple through energy markets and logistics networks. Airlines worldwide have removed two million seats from their May schedules in the past fortnight, according to data from Cirium, with thousands of flights cancelled and carriers switching to smaller or more fuel-efficient aircraft. The cost of jet fuel has doubled since late February, when hostilities in Iran began, and the closure of Gulf airports—which traditionally handled a third of European-Asian travel—has compounded the chaos. The European Commission, speaking in Brussels, has warned carriers to prepare for all eventualities, acknowledging that no one can predict how long the situation will last. Close coordination with member states and the International Energy Agency is underway, but officials concede that the bloc faces a structural deficit: Europe consumes roughly 1.6 million barrels of jet fuel daily, yet is more than half a million barrels short of domestic supply. Prices have again breached $200 per barrel, and competition for each cargo is intensifying.

Viewed from Washington, the immediate consequence for American travellers has been a series of cost-cutting measures by major carriers. Delta Air Lines confirmed that from May 19 it will eliminate food and beverage service on all flights under 350 miles—a change affecting 450 daily departures, or about nine percent of its network. The airline frames the move as an effort to create “a more consistent experience,” but critics note that the decision coincides with a period of robust profitability. Delta announced a $1.3 billion profit-sharing payout to employees and a four percent pay rise last week, even as its chief executive Ed Bastian received $27.1 million in total compensation for 2024. The juxtaposition has sparked debate about whether the service cuts are driven more by cost savings than by operational necessity. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, flag carriers such as Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways are grappling with the loss of key transit hubs, forcing them to reroute or reduce frequencies.

Analysts in London observe that while some airlines describe the current situation as “manageable,” the fragility of alternative supply routes looms large. The EU’s weekly discussions with industry stakeholders are aimed at securing replacement cargoes from other regions, but the global market is tight and stockpiles are dwindling. If the war in Iran prolongs the disruption, or if diplomatic efforts fail to reopen Gulf airspace, the industry may be forced into more draconian measures—not just eliminating snacks, but grounding widebody fleets and slashing long-haul networks. The coming weeks will test whether the aviation sector’s resilience, honed during the pandemic, can weather a crisis that strikes at the very fuel that keeps planes aloft.