The United Nations has issued an urgent warning that an El Niño climate phenomenon is almost certain to form in the coming months, with a 90 per cent probability by November, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Secretary-General António Guterres declared the event “an urgent climatic warning”, urging governments to prepare for extreme weather disruptions that will compound the already record-breaking global heat.

Viewed from Washington, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised specific alarm over coral ecosystems, forecasting that the warming Pacific could trigger the fifth global coral bleaching event in recorded history. High-risk zones extend across much of the northern Pacific, including Hawaii, Florida and the Caribbean, threatening vital marine biodiversity and coastal livelihoods. The spectre of such widespread ecological damage has drawn comparisons to the devastating El Niño of 1877, which is estimated to have killed more than 50 million people through drought and famine.

In Jakarta, Indonesian authorities are bracing for severe drought. The national meteorology agency (BMKG) projects that from August to October, large swathes of the archipelago—stretching from Sumatra and Kalimantan to Java, Bali, Sulawesi and parts of Papua—could receive less than half their normal rainfall. The UN has underscored the risk to food security across the tropics, with Guterres characterising the phenomenon as “pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world”.

European analysts caution that while direct impacts on the continent may be less immediate, the global knock-on effects—from disrupted commodity supply chains to heightened humanitarian pressures—will reverberate widely. The last El Niño cycle in 2023–24 was among the five strongest on record and pushed 2024 to become the hottest year ever measured; forecast models suggest this new event is likely to be at least moderate in strength, with a significant chance of intensifying.

The convergence of alerts from agencies spanning the globe paints a picture of a planet at a climatic tipping point. As supercharged heatwaves, altered monsoon patterns and ecosystem damage accelerate, the months ahead will test the resilience of governments and communities in the crosshairs.