The European Union is laying the groundwork for what would be the first high-level dialogue with the Kremlin since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with President of the European Council António Costa confirming that he is consulting the leaders of all 27 member states on how best to approach Russia “when the right moment comes.” Speaking to the Financial Times, Costa acknowledged that Moscow has so far given no clear signal of willingness to engage with Brussels, but insisted that the bloc must be prepared. The move marks a significant shift in tone from a union that for three years has prioritised military and financial support for Ukraine over any direct contact with Vladimir Putin. Viewed from Moscow, the initiative is not unwelcome.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded by stating that Putin is ready for talks with Europeans and that Russia did not initiate the rupture in relations. “We are ready to go forward as far as the Europeans are ready,” Peskov said, implicitly calling Brussels’s bluff on who is blocking dialogue. In Washington, the emerging European posture is being watched with cautious approval. Officials there have long pressed allies to assume greater responsibility for eventual peace negotiations, but the Trump administration has also signalled it intends to lead any settlement talks itself.

Analysts in London note that Costa’s phrasing — “when the right moment comes” — deliberately leaves the timing ambiguous, perhaps to avoid undercutting President Volodymyr Zelensky’s leverage at a delicate juncture. Indeed, Zelensky himself, speaking at an EU summit in Cyprus last month, urged European leaders to “be ready to contribute positively to negotiations,” a remark that Costa cited as a mandate for his current preparations. Yet the reality on the ground remains starkly at odds with diplomatic signals.

The World Health Organization has recorded more than three thousand attacks on healthcare facilities in Ukraine since 2022, and both Kyiv and Moscow continue to report daily exchanges of fire, despite a brief unilateral ceasefire called by Russia that never held. For the EU, the challenge now is to calibrate a position that reassures Ukraine while leaving a door open for Russia — a balancing act that, if mishandled, could expose deep divisions among member states. The coming months will test whether the bloc can translate its institutional machinery into a coherent negotiating strategy, or whether it will be sidelined by the US-Russia-Ukraine track it fears.