The most striking signal in this month’s cross-border economic data is the resurgence of India’s services sector, which expanded at its fastest pace since last November. The HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index climbed to 58.8 in April from 57.5 in March, driven by a sharp uptick in new orders and output. Viewed from New Delhi, the acceleration reflects a decisive shift by domestic firms away from international suppliers amid the ongoing instability in West Asia, a reorientation that analysts in London describe as both a hedge against global supply-chain risk and a vote of confidence in local capacity. The breadth of the expansion, spanning transport, finance and technology, suggests the Indian economy is generating its own momentum even as external demand remains uneven.

That same survey week offered a far more cautious picture from Moscow. Russia’s services PMI edged up to 49.7 in April from 49.5 the previous month, remaining below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. For the first time in five months, new orders fell, a reversal that analysts in Moscow attribute to persistent financial strain among clients and weakening demand across all sectors of the economy. The composite index, which includes manufacturing, slipped to 49.1, leaving little doubt that the Russian private sector is languishing. The modest improvement in the headline figure does little to mask what S&P Global describes as a “sustained reduction in activity”; the recovery that policymakers had hoped for remains stubbornly out of reach.

Across the Atlantic, the United States offered a third, more ambiguous data point. Private-sector payrolls rose by 109,000 in April, the strongest monthly gain since early 2025, according to ADP Research. The figure fell just short of consensus expectations, but analysts in Washington noted that more than half of the hiring came from health services and education, with construction also contributing — a segment boosted by investment in data centres linked to artificial intelligence. The labour market, they argue, is finding its footing after a particularly harsh year, even if the recovery is uneven and concentrated in a few sectors.

Taken together, these three snapshots reveal a global economy moving in different directions. India’s domestic-driven expansion offers a counterpoint to the sluggishness in Russia, where weak internal demand remains the principal drag. The US, meanwhile, is stabilising but not accelerating. The coming months will test whether India can sustain its pivot away from global trade without losing export competitiveness, and whether Russia’s contraction will deepen as client finances remain squeezed. For now, the centre of gravity in services activity has shifted decisively towards Asia’s largest democracy.