The world’s leading economic agencies have issued a stark joint warning that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is draining global oil inventories at an unprecedented pace, raising the spectre of acute fuel shortages during the Northern Hemisphere’s peak summer demand. In a statement released on Friday, the heads of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, International Energy Agency and World Trade Organization said that unless maritime flows through the chokepoint are restored swiftly, the energy security of both advanced and developing nations will be imperilled.

Viewed from Washington, the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran is aimed at degrading Tehran’s capabilities, but the economic blowback is proving profoundly asymmetric. Analysts in London note that the disruption has already sent crude prices and fertiliser costs spiralling, delivering an outsized shock to fragile economies far from the conflict zone. The agencies estimate that vulnerable import-dependent states may require up to $50 billion in emergency support to weather the fallout—a figure that underscores the scale of the collateral damage.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes, has been effectively blocked since the onset of hostilities. Gulf News reports that global stockpiles are being drawn down at record rates, while the IEA warns that if the blockage persists into the summer, the world will face its most severe fuel supply squeeze in decades. The joint statement highlighted that while the global economy has thus far remained resilient, the prolonged uncertainty is now threatening jobs and stoking hunger in poorer nations—from Jakarta to Cairo—where rising fuel and fertiliser prices are battering household budgets and agricultural cycles.

As the heads of the four institutions held an emergency meeting on Thursday, their appeal serves as a dire signal to both warring parties and the international community. The longer Hormuz stays closed, the deeper the economic scarring. With no diplomatic resolution in sight, the risk of contagion spreading to broader financial markets and even to the robust economies of the global North is mounting—a prospect that could turn a regional war into a global economic crisis.