The World Bank’s June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report paints a sharply divided global picture, as the fallout from the West Asia war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighs on advanced and emerging economies alike. Yet among major nations, India stands out: its growth forecast for the 2026–27 fiscal year was revised up marginally to 6.6%, from 6.5% in January, making it one of the few large economies to see an improved outlook. Despite a slowdown from an estimated 7.7% this year, India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with a rebound to 7.2% in FY28 driven by firming domestic demand, recent cuts to goods and services tax rates, and ongoing structural reforms that attract foreign investment, the Bank said.

By contrast, the mood across Latin America has soured. Mexico’s forecast for 2027 was trimmed by a tenth of a point to 1.7%, with growth this year stuck at a tepid 1.3% and barely reaching 1.9% in 2028. Analysts in Mexico City point to the looming renegotiation of the US–Mexico–Canada trade pact and the chronic drain of state oil giant Pemex as key risks to investment and exports. Colombia received a steeper cut of three-tenths, to 2.3% for 2026, as persistent inflation and fiscal constraints limit momentum, though a gradual recovery to 2.7% by 2028 is foreseen. Argentina’s outlook was also marked down: growth is now pegged at 3.6% this year and 3.7% next, as strict monetary and fiscal policies continue to cap domestic demand, even though a dramatic fall in underlying inflation has provided some stability.

In the Gulf, the picture is one of near-term pain followed by a vigorous rebound. The UAE’s real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2.4% in 2026 amid the disruption from the Middle East conflict and Hormuz closure, but then surge to 4.1% and 4.2% in 2027 and 2028 respectively. Viewed from Dubai, the bounce-back reflects both a normalisation of trade routes and the enduring strength of oil-fuelled investment across the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Bank’s report suggests.

The divergent trajectories underscore the uneven nature of the post-crisis global recovery. India’s ability to sustain robust expansion hinges on the continued implementation of reforms and the resilience of private consumption, while Mexico’s fate is closely tied to the outcome of trilateral trade talks. For Argentina, the challenge is to translate macroeconomic stabilisation into durable growth without stoking inflation. Across the Gulf, the return to higher growth rates remains contingent on geopolitical stability in a region where tensions can flare unexpectedly. The World Bank’s revisions serve as a reminder that, in a fragmented world economy, national policy choices and external vulnerabilities will dictate which nations power ahead and which are left lagging.