Indonesia is facing an unusually harsh dry season in 2026, with the country’s meteorological agency, BMKG, warning that the peak of the drought will be longer and more severe than normal. The agency forecasts that the dry spell will peak between July and September, with August expected to be the most intense month, affecting nearly half of the country’s land area. The situation is compounded by the anticipated return of El Niño, which is projected to persist into early 2027, further reducing rainfall and exacerbating drought conditions across the archipelago.

From a regional perspective, the impact will be unevenly distributed. BMKG data shows that 83 climate zones, or about 12 percent of Indonesia’s land area, will experience peak drought in July, including parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java, and eastern Indonesia. By August, 369 zones—nearly half the country—will be in the grip of the dry season, with Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua also affected. Analysts in Jakarta note that the prolonged drought poses serious risks to agriculture, water supplies, and public health, with the agency recommending that farmers adjust planting schedules and switch to more drought-resistant crops. The threat of forest and land fires, known locally as karhutla, is also elevated, particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan, where peatland fires often produce hazardous haze.

In contrast to the broader dry forecast, daily weather patterns remain variable. On 11 June 2026, BMKG reported that much of Jakarta would enjoy clear skies, with temperatures ranging from 28 to 33 degrees Celsius. However, other parts of the country face heavy rain due to atmospheric convergence zones. Regions including Sumatra, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua are under warnings for intense rainfall, with some areas on alert for very heavy downpours. This juxtaposition underscores Indonesia’s climatic complexity, where seasonal drought and localised storms can coexist.

Looking ahead, the convergence of a severe dry season and a multi-year El Niño event demands heightened preparedness. BMKG has urged all sectors to bolster contingency plans, from water management to health services, as the risk of respiratory infections and water shortages rises. The agency’s warnings, echoed by officials in disaster-prone provinces, signal that Indonesia must navigate a delicate balance between immediate weather hazards and the longer-term challenge of climate variability.