Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is gravely wounded and has effectively delegated decision-making to commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, marking an unprecedented shift in the Islamic Republic’s structure of power. According to senior Iranian officials cited by the New York Times, Khamenei suffered severe facial burns, underwent three operations on his leg, and now awaits a prosthetic limb, with plastic surgery still needed to restore his ability to speak. His father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on 28 February that also struck the family residence in Tehran.

Mojtaba was appointed supreme leader in early March but has not appeared in public or recorded a video address, issuing only written statements to avoid appearing weak. Officials say he remains mentally sharp and engaged, yet his physical limitations have forced him to rely on a collective of veteran Guard officers who now steer war, diplomacy, and security decisions. Viewed from Washington, this concentration of authority in the IRGC is seen as both an opportunity and a risk: while the military apparatus may prove more pragmatic in ceasefire talks, its internal cohesion is far from assured.

Analysts in London note that the shift resembles a de facto junta, where generals control the levers of war and peace while the cleric provides symbolic legitimacy. In Tehran, the parliament speaker has publicly denied any leadership rift, but whispers of a power vacuum persist. The ambiguity has emboldened adversaries: Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel this week, claiming retaliation for an Israeli strike on a Lebanese village, even as President Donald Trump extended the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks.

The broader US-Iran ceasefire, which Trump extended unilaterally, is set to expire on Sunday. Iran insists on lifting the blockade of its ports as a precondition for talks, yet both sides appear wary of resuming full-scale hostilities. The question now is whether Khamenei’s hidden hand can reassert itself once his health improves, or whether the IRGC’s ascendancy marks a permanent reordering of the regime.

As one former adviser to President Ahmadinejad put it, Mojtaba runs the country like a chairman of the board — but the board’s generals are increasingly writing the agenda themselves.