Oil prices crept higher on Friday, buoyed by deepening investor scepticism over the prospects of a breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, though the gains were insufficient to reverse a week of brutal losses. Brent crude futures settled at US$103.54 a barrel, up 96 cents or 0.94%, while US West Texas Intermediate finished at US$96.60, adding 25 cents. Both had surged more than three per cent earlier in the session before paring gains, reflecting the febrile state of a market that has swung wildly on each rumour from the diplomatic track.

View from the Gulf: the price action underscores the region’s acute vulnerability to political noise. A diplomatic source in Islamabad, cited by Iran’s state news agency IRNA, confirmed that Pakistan’s army chief had departed for Tehran, signalling possible mediation. Yet the core impasse remains: Iran demands the lifting of sanctions in return for uranium concessions, while Washington insists on verifiable steps first. “We have so many headlines back and forth, it’s hard to keep up,” observed Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. “They keep changing the news before the ink is dry on the newspaper.”

From Washington, the tone has been cautiously optimistic. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reported “some good signs” from the talks, and a senior Iranian source told Reuters that gaps had narrowed. But market participants saw little concrete progress, and the weekly figures tell a starker story: Brent dropped 5.48 per cent, and WTI plunged 8.37 per cent, as traders priced in the possibility that negotiations could yet collapse. Analysts in London note that the sharp fluctuations reflect not only geopolitics but also underlying supply-demand fundamentals, with fears of a global economic slowdown compounding the uncertainty.

Looking ahead, the oil market remains hostage to diplomatic signals from Tehran and Washington. Any credible rapprochement would ease the risk premium tied to passage through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially sending prices sharply lower. But for now, the pattern of sharp intra-day swings followed by weekly retreats suggests that investors are bracing for a prolonged period of ambiguity, where every leak and statement from Islamabad, Washington, or Tehran can move the needle — but only temporarily.