Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated on Monday that no withdrawal from southern Lebanon will occur beyond two designated test localities until Hezbollah is disarmed, and that the military is preparing for a presence that could last years. The remarks, reported across Israeli media, follow the signing of a US-brokered framework agreement that, according to officials in Jerusalem, deliberately avoids fixed timelines and instead ties any redeployment to the fulfilment of specific field conditions. Katz told military correspondents that after Washington linked the Lebanon file to its understandings with Iran, Israel shifted to a “Plan B” centred on deepening a security zone in the south, and that he had agreed with the commander of US Central Command not to withdraw from security zones in Lebanon, Syria or Gaza.

Viewed from Beirut, the agreement has exposed a sharp internal divide. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who have long sought direct negotiations with Israel, accepted the framework and told Washington that the Lebanese state would assume responsibility for its implementation. However, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem denounced the deal as “shameful” and a legitimisation of occupation, while Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a key Hezbollah ally, warned it could drag the country into internal confrontation and insisted that only the ongoing Iran-US talks offer a realistic path to forcing an Israeli withdrawal. Lebanese officials requested that a security annex to the agreement remain classified, a move Israeli Channel 12 said was intended to shield the government from Hezbollah’s challenge.

In Washington, the framework is presented as a phased process for restoring Lebanese sovereignty and disarming non-state groups. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described it as creating a mechanism for the Lebanese army to gradually take over security responsibilities, beginning in test areas such as the villages of Frun, Zawtar al-Gharbiya and Ghandouriyeh. Yet Israeli military sources told Haaretz that no withdrawal order has been issued and that the Northern Command is only examining a possible relocation from those three villages. Katz expressed scepticism that Lebanese soldiers would “suddenly become lions” and confront Hezbollah, underscoring the Israeli assessment that the army is not yet capable of enforcing disarmament.

The agreement’s conditional architecture reflects the interplay of regional pressures. Katz acknowledged that earlier US-Iran understandings had imposed operational constraints on Israeli forces in Lebanon, but argued that the Lebanese government’s direct engagement with Israel removed those limitations. Tehran has insisted that any broader US-Iran memorandum must preserve Lebanon’s territorial integrity and lead to a full Israeli withdrawal within 60 days, a demand Hezbollah says the government abandoned. Meanwhile, Israeli media report that the military is reinforcing positions for a long-term stay, and operations have continued after the signing, including the destruction of a Hezbollah underground site near Majdal Zoun.

Implementation now hinges on conditions that remain unmet. The Lebanese army has yet to deploy to the test areas, and Israeli officials say no further pullback will occur without verified disarmament. The US is considering a monitoring mechanism modelled on the civil-military coordination structure used for the Gaza ceasefire, but no final decision has been taken. With Hezbollah rejecting the framework and street protests erupting in Lebanon, the dossier remains suspended between a signed text and a political reality that leaves Israeli forces in place indefinitely.