A year after Friedrich Merz led the Christian Democrats into a grand coalition with the Social Democrats, his government is politically adrift. An INSA poll published this week puts the Union at just 24 percent, more than four points below its February 2025 election result, while the SPD has slumped into the high teens. In a direct comparison with the previous Ampel coalition, analysts in Berlin note that the Merz cabinet is now less popular than the three-party alliance whose internal feuds helped bring it down.

Even the coalition’s own supporters are deserting it: voters who once hoped that a stable black-red partnership would restore economic confidence are now voicing the same complaints of drift and bickering that plagued its predecessor. Viewed from Washington, the administration is seen as a weakening partner. President Trump’s decision to withdraw thousands of American troops from Germany — announced after Merz’s blunt criticism of US policy during a school visit — has been interpreted by diplomats in London as a sign that Washington no longer sees Berlin as a reliable interlocutor.

The chancellor’s communication style is under domestic scrutiny as well. A widely circulated video shows him brusquely rebuffing a terminally ill woman who asked about health-care cuts, a moment his own party’s strategists concede feeds the perception of a leader disconnected from ordinary hardship. Meanwhile, the coalition’s internal tensions grow.

SPD faction leader Matthias Miersch has publicly questioned Merz’s fitness to govern, while the CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann demands proof that the SPD is capable of genuine reform. In an effort to regain the initiative, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has promised a tax reform package “in the coming weeks” that would shift the burden onto higher earners and relieve middle incomes. Whether such a plan can survive the coalition’s fractious budget negotiations remains uncertain, especially as the government must simultaneously manage the economic fallout from the Iran crisis and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The crisis extends beyond party politics. In central Berlin, the homelessness visible on Alexanderplatz is a stark reminder of the social strain that the state appears unable to address. Protests on May Day were notably quieter this year, but the quiet offers cold comfort to a chancellor whose approval ratings have fallen below those of Olaf Scholz at the same point in his term.

Looking ahead, analysts in Munich argue that the coalition’s survival may depend on a rapid, visible legislative win — such as a tax reform — to halt the slide. But with the opposition AfD rising in the polls and trust in the mainstream parties crumbling, the political ground beneath Merz is shifting faster than his government can adapt.