Mexico’s light-vehicle exports fell 9.2% in June from a year earlier, the steepest monthly decline of 2026, as the uneven architecture of US tariffs began to redraw production maps. Data from the national statistics institute showed shipments of 301,000 units, with Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Nissan each recording drops of more than 45%. The contraction snapped a three-month run of increases and coincided with a 1.9% fall in domestic output. Viewed from Mexico City, the numbers crystallise a structural squeeze: vehicles assembled in Mexico face an effective US tariff of nearly 19%, while competitors from Japan and South Korea pay a capped 15% under bilateral deals that carry no regional content requirements. The disparity, acknowledged by US trade officials but not yet corrected, has already prompted Toyota to begin shifting Tacoma production from Tijuana to the United States, and Nissan, Honda and Stellantis have announced their own relocations.

In Brazil, the picture is almost a mirror image. Production rose 8.8% in the first half to 1.37 million units, the best January-to-June performance since 2019, and domestic registrations jumped 18.5%. The manufacturers’ association Anfavea revised its full-year forecast sharply upwards, now projecting more than 3 million registrations for the first time since 2014. Yet the export side tells a different story: shipments abroad fell 21.2% in the half, while imports surged 22.8%, with Chinese brands capturing a growing share of the internal market. Analysts in São Paulo note that the domestic boom is being fuelled in part by the same wave of competitively priced Asian vehicles that is challenging Mexico’s home market, where sales rose 5.3% even as local factories lost ground.

Italy’s new-car market expanded 9.7% in the first half, with June registrations up 10.6% year-on-year. For the first time, battery-electric vehicles exceeded 10% of monthly sales, and plug-in hybrids took another 10.6%, pushing all rechargeable cars to 20.7% of the market. The advance was led by private buyers and by Chinese manufacturers: BYD alone registered more than 6,000 units in June, a 208% increase, giving it a market share above 4%. Industry observers in Rome caution that a significant portion of BEV deliveries still reflects orders placed under 2025 incentives, and Italy currently offers no direct purchase subsidies for private electric-car buyers, leaving the trajectory vulnerable.

Used-car markets in Argentina and Brazil provided a counterpoint of resilience. In Argentina, June transfers rose 8.6% year-on-year to 155,492 units, the best month of 2026, though the half-year total remained 2.9% below the same period of 2025. Brazilian used-vehicle sales reached 1.59 million units in June, 10.3% higher than a year earlier, and the half-year volume of 9.08 million units put the sector on track for an annual record. Dealers in both countries attribute the strength to price corrections and a consumer shift towards more affordable mobility as new-car financing remains tight. The next factual milestone is the ongoing review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, where Mexican negotiators are pressing for tariff parity, while in Europe the second-half sales data will test whether electric-vehicle demand can sustain its momentum without subsidy support.