Mexico’s economy expanded 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the previous three months, the strongest quarterly advance since late 2020, according to preliminary figures from the national statistics institute. The seasonally adjusted rebound followed a 0.6 per cent contraction in the first quarter and comfortably outpaced the 0.4 per cent quarterly growth recorded by the United States over the same period. On an annual basis, Mexican GDP rose 2.1 per cent.

The broad-based upturn was led by a 3.3 per cent rise in primary activities, a 1.6 per cent gain in industry and a 1.5 per cent increase in services. Analysts at Banco Base estimated that roughly two-thirds of the quarterly expansion was attributable to the Fifa World Cup, which Mexico co-hosted from 11 June, boosting hospitality, retail and construction. The external sector also contributed: exports climbed 12.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter, with non-automotive manufacturing up 14.3 per cent and the automotive industry recording its best quarter since late 2023. Officials cautioned that part of the strength reflects a rebound from weather-hit agriculture and tariff-related uncertainty earlier in the year, and that the World Cup impulse will fade in the second half.

The growth figures were released alongside public-finance data showing a narrower-than-programmed deficit. The budget deficit stood at 579 billion pesos, 358 billion pesos below the calendar target, while the primary balance swung to a surplus of 115 billion pesos. Value-added tax receipts surged 10.6 per cent in real terms year on year—the largest first-half increase since 2014—boosted by domestic consumption and tighter customs enforcement. The broadest measure of public debt, the SHRFSP, reached 51 per cent of GDP, 1.6 percentage points below the original forecast. Finance Secretary Édgar Amador described the debt level as “sustainable” and noted that the financial cost of the debt fell 4.8 per cent in real terms, helped by a strong peso and refinancing operations.

With the first-half expansion, the government maintained its full-year growth forecast of 1.8–2.8 per cent. Rodrigo Mariscal, the finance ministry’s chief economist, said the base effect from the second quarter alone would deliver 1.5 per cent growth even if output were flat for the rest of the year. The ministry expects private forecasters and rating agencies to revise their projections upward. The next milestone will be the third-quarter GDP estimate, which will reveal how much of the World Cup-driven momentum endures once the tournament ends and global energy-price pressures persist.