Mexico’s fiscal reliance on its oil sector is unravelling on two fronts. Petróleos Mexicanos’ contribution to total government revenue has dropped to just 4 percent, down from 10.9 percent in 2019, according to data cited by El Norte and Reforma. Simultaneously, the state company lost 9.18 billion pesos to fuel theft in the second quarter—equivalent to 101 million pesos a day and the worst quarterly deterioration since 2018, El Universal reported.

The collapse in Pemex’s tax payments is driven by a deliberate policy shift. The government replaced the Derecho por Utilidad Compartida (DUC) with a new Derecho Petrolero para el Bienestar, slashing the effective rate to 30 percent in 2025. “This change means Pemex gives the government less revenue because the tax rate is lower,” Katherine Olvera of the Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria told El Norte. Compounding the decline, a growing share of crude is being diverted to domestic refineries such as Dos Bocas rather than exported. “The government is receiving less income from oil sales because a good part is being sent to refineries that are losing money,” said Víctor Manuel Herrera of Miranda Ratings Advisory.

On the criminal side, the huachicol trade has evolved into a sophisticated contraband operation. The U.S. Treasury Department estimates that one-quarter to one-third of all fuel sold in Mexico may be illicit, making it the second-largest revenue source for cartels after drug trafficking. Fuel legally purchased in the United States enters Mexico with falsified manifests—labelled as waste or residues—aided by corrupt customs and tax officials, the Los Angeles Times detailed. Marcial Díaz Ibarra of QUA Energy told El Universal that each litre sold illegally represents a “triple loss”: the product’s value for Pemex, evaded IEPS and IVA taxes, and restricted investment capacity.

The twin drains are forcing a reckoning. President Claudia Sheinbaum, responding to the arrest of a former governor linked to a fuel-smuggling ring, insisted the case was “an investigation with a legal basis and with evidence,” the Los Angeles Times reported. Mauricio González of the IMEF told Reforma that a deep reform of Pemex’s operating model is now essential, as the company has become a growing burden on the federal government. The next milestone to watch is whether the fight against huachicol consolidates into a genuine fiscal-recovery policy, as analysts urge, or whether the erosion of oil-linked revenues continues to widen the public deficit.