The Estadio Ciudad de México will host a World Cup round-of-16 fixture on Sunday between a Mexico side that has recorded four victories and no goals conceded, and an England team with three wins and one draw but three goals allowed. The winner will face either Brazil or Norway in the quarter-finals, a stage Mexico last reached in 1986. For England, advancing would sustain a campaign that has produced more questions than convincing performances.

Mexico’s route has been underpinned by defensive organisation. A 2-0 win over Ecuador in the last 32 followed a group phase in which they scored eight times and held opponents scoreless. Centre-backs Johan Vásquez and César Montes have formed the core of that rearguard, while 18-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora has earned comparisons from Javier Aguirre to Tomás Boy and Benjamín Galindo for his vision. Raúl Jiménez, with his knowledge of English football from his time at Wolverhampton Wanderers, provides a reference point in attack. Aguirre has publicly stressed the squad’s unity and humility as the foundation of their form.

England’s progress has been less commanding. They needed a late rally to beat DR Congo 2-1, having trailed at half-time. Harry Kane has scored five times in the tournament, making him the primary threat, and Jude Bellingham’s influence remains pivotal. Yet the team has looked susceptible to quick transitions, conceding against all but one opponent. The Azteca’s altitude, measured at 2,240 metres above sea level, is a factor that European sides have historically found taxing; England have never won a competitive match at the venue and last played there in a 1985 friendly loss.

Analysts in Mexico City note that Aguirre has requested a “casi perfecto” (almost perfect) display, with particular attention to denying Kane space. Local media have reported that the phrase “¿Y si sí?” has dominated social-media discourse, signalling a departure from the fatalism that once accompanied the national team’s major matches. London-based bookmakers give England a narrow advantage, but the Azteca’s record and Mexico’s defensive streak have swayed many local experts toward an evenly balanced contest. The tie, officiated by Australian referee Alireza Faghani, kicks off at 6 p.m. local time.