Heavy gunfire erupted across Mogadishu on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, as Somali government forces and militias loyal to the political opposition exchanged fire in several neighbourhoods, forcing civilians to flee and damaging property. The violence came just hours before opposition leaders had called for mass demonstrations against President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s decision to extend his term in office by one year, a move that has plunged the Horn of Africa nation into its most severe political crisis in years.

The immediate spark is the president’s announcement that he would remain in power despite his mandate having expired in May. Mohamud argues that the extension is necessary to push through constitutional reforms aimed at replacing Somalia’s traditional clan-based power-sharing system with direct universal suffrage. Parliament has endorsed the changes, but the opposition and many civil society groups denounce them as a pretext to entrench personal rule and delay long-overdue elections.

The recriminations have been sharp and personal. Former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, now a leading opposition figure, directly accused Mohamud of using state force to suppress dissent, while former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire claimed that government troops attacked him ahead of the planned protests. As armoured vehicles patrolled the streets and security forces took up positions around potential gathering points, the capital braced for further unrest.

From East African capitals to West African newsrooms, the events are being watched with deepening unease. Kenyan media have highlighted the risk that the standoff could derail Somalia’s fragile state-building progress and embolden the al-Shabaab insurgency, while Brazilian and Indonesian outlets have drawn attention to the constitutional tug-of-war that lies behind the street clashes. International donors, who have poured billions into stabilising Somalia, face a stark choice: pressure Mohamud to compromise or risk seeing the country slide back into open conflict.

With no established mechanism to resolve the dispute and trust in short supply, the coming days will be critical. The opposition has vowed to press on with demonstrations, while the government shows no sign of backing down. Unless a mediated settlement emerges quickly, the gunfire in Mogadishu may be only the opening salvo in a prolonged and dangerous power struggle.