The premium buyers pay for new housing over resale has widened to a record in Moscow and keeps growing in Buenos Aires, a divide now spanning cooling markets in Canada and Australia. New flats in Moscow averaged 481,000 roubles per square metre in the second quarter against 297,000 roubles for resale — a 31.1 per cent discount on secondary stock, the widest for the period since 2020, according to analysts Euler cited by Kommersant. In Buenos Aires, new units carry a 32.6 per cent average premium over used apartments, up from 28.4 per cent a year ago and 10.8 per cent five years ago, property platform Zonaprop reports; in the Monserrat district the gap reaches 111.3 per cent. In Toronto, downtown resale condos sell at just under $900 a square foot against roughly $1,200 for new units, said Robert Van Rhijn of Strata Realty.

The causes differ by market but converge on construction costs and financing. In Buenos Aires, rising labour, materials and land costs have inflated new developments while resale prices adjust more slowly; Sebastián Sosa, president and co-founder of RE/MAX Argentina and Uruguay, puts the typical new-apartment premium at 15-30 per cent, mainly reflecting construction cost increases. In Moscow, Evelina Ishmetyeva of Key Capital points to expensive land plots and additional requirements for architecture and infrastructure. In Australia, three consecutive Reserve Bank rate hikes and government tax changes for property investors have turned sentiment, according to Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP; in Toronto, higher rates and tougher financing have left thousands of pre-construction and newly built units unsold.

Sales data confirm the slowdown. Montreal-area transactions fell 10 per cent year-on-year in July to 3,338, with new listings up 4.1 per cent and inventory up 16.6 per cent, the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers said. Greater Toronto sales slipped 0.9 per cent year-on-year in July, with the average price down 4.5 per cent to $1,003,956, per the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. In Moscow, the projected number of apartments in new projects fell 30.7 per cent month-on-month, with launches down 18.8 per cent, bnMAP.pro data show. In Australia, Oliver forecasts capital-city prices to keep falling until about April next year, a 7.8 per cent peak-to-trough drop; NAB expects Sydney and Melbourne to fall about 10 per cent. Developers are responding with incentives — Graywood Developments is offering a zero-closing-costs programme at its Claystone project in Oakville — while in Moscow's affordable segment, Svyatoslav Ivanov of Rastsvetay Stolitsa says developers are deliberately limiting budget supply to hold prices.

The next milestone is in Russia, where changes to the family mortgage programme take effect this autumn; Dmitry Rakuta, a mortgage broker, expects a significant outflow of buyers and a 10-15 per cent correction in new-build prices from October, though not a global collapse.