The United Kingdom is poised for what could be its hottest May day on record this weekend, as a plume of exceptionally hot air from North Africa pushes temperatures towards 33°C in parts of southern England. The Met Office has indicated a 40 per cent probability that the mercury will reach that level on Sunday or Monday, which would eclipse the previous May record of 32.8°C set in London in 1922. Heat health alerts have been issued for much of the Midlands, eastern England, and the south-east, with officials warning of minor impacts on health and social care services. The warm spell is expected to last through the bank holiday weekend, with temperatures remaining well above the seasonal norm.

The heatwave is not confined to the British Isles. France is experiencing a so-called "heat dome" – a persistent area of high pressure that compresses and heats the air – with temperatures forecast to climb 10 to 15 degrees above average in a matter of days. Météo-France expects readings of up to 35°C in the south-west, which would surpass the previous May high of 30.5°C recorded only last year. In Spain and Portugal, thermometers are predicted to hit 38°C, while the source of this warm air, Morocco, has already endured extreme conditions. Temperatures in Morocco reached 42.4°C in Sidi Slimane on Thursday, with the national weather service issuing orange-level alerts for a heatwave expected to persist into next week. Meteorologists attribute the phenomenon to a deep Saharan depression drawing hot, dry air northward in what is locally known as the "sharqi".

Looking ahead, the heat is expected to intensify across the continent before a slow decline early next week. In Germany, the Pentecost weekend will bring highs of up to 30°C, while Scandinavia remains largely untouched by the extreme warmth, with Sweden forecast to see a more modest 25°C in the south. The rapid onset of such high temperatures so early in the season has raised concerns about public health and energy demand, particularly in regions unaccustomed to May heatwaves. Analysts note that the combination of an anticyclonic blocking pattern and a precursor heat dome – a setup more typical of July or August – underscores the influence of a warming climate on the variability of European summers. The immediate question for forecasters is not whether records will fall, but by how much.