Russia has unleashed a record wave of long-range drones against Ukraine, launching over 6,500 unmanned aircraft in April alone according to Kyiv’s air force data, while simultaneously attempting to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences with daytime assaults of more than 400 drones in a single salvo. The escalation, which saw strikes reach the western city of Ternopil and the port of Kherson where a minibus was hit killing two municipal workers, represents Moscow’s most intensive aerial campaign since the full-scale invasion began. Yet even as the Kremlin intensifies its bombardment, Ukrainian drones have struck a major oil terminal in the Black Sea port of Tuapse for the fourth time in two weeks, targeting the refineries that fund Russia’s war machine.

The economic calculus, however, is proving more ambiguous than the tactical successes on either side might suggest. Analysts in London note that surging global oil prices, driven by tensions in the Middle East and the Iran conflict, have paradoxically cushioned Moscow from the full impact of these strikes, while the easing of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan crude has further stabilised Russian revenues. Viewed from Washington, the dual dynamic underscores the difficulty of truly crippling an energy-rich adversary through remote strikes alone.

On the ground, the human toll continues to mount: in Kherson, a Russian drone attack on a public minibus left blood-spattered windows and seven wounded, a pattern that Ukrainian human rights officials denounce as systematic. President Zelensky, acknowledging the deteriorating protection of cities such as Dnipro and Odesa, has announced an overhaul of the national air defence system and a reform of the army, including special contracts for infantry with salaries tied to battlefield performance. As the war grinds into a third spring, the rhythm of attack and response has become a grim stalemate: Moscow can inflict daily terror from the sky, but cannot break Ukrainian resolve; Kyiv can strike deep into Russian territory, but cannot alter the global energy arithmetic that sustains the Kremlin’s war chest.

The coming months will test whether either side can translate tactical gains into strategic advantage, or whether this brutal pattern merely deepens the region’s descent into attrition.