Russia has delivered its sharpest economic warning yet to Armenia, threatening to unilaterally rip up a 2013 agreement that provides duty-free natural gas, petroleum products and rough diamonds. A letter from Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, confirmed by both Moscow and Yerevan, stated that continued moves toward European Union membership would undermine decades of partnership and trigger the agreement’s suspension or denunciation. The démarche follows months of tit-for-tat measures, including Russian bans on Armenian mineral water, alcohol and flowers, and marks a new low in the rapidly deteriorating relationship.

Viewed from Yerevan, the threat was met with a combination of dismissiveness and reassurance. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, campaigning ahead of parliamentary elections on 7 June, told voters that Armenia “will have much more money” so that higher gas prices “won’t seem expensive.” He described his country as a “crossroads of peace” buoyed by new railway links, a planned transit gas pipeline, and a growing arms export industry selling to developed nations. At the same time, Pashinyan stressed that Armenia has no intention of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union, noting that he remains the only official serving on both of the bloc’s supreme governing bodies. He said those who talk of exit “are digging the grave of the EAEU,” and ultimately the choice between the EU and the EAEU would be put to citizens.

Moscow insists the timing is not linked to the vote. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected accusations of electoral interference, saying it was Yerevan that had adopted legislation orienting itself toward Brussels, not Russia. Yet analysts in London note that the gas letter, combined with warnings from Rosatom’s chief that Armenia could lose its entire nuclear-energy competence if it abandons Russian technology, forms a classic pressure campaign. The current plant at Metsamor, which supplies about a third of the country’s electricity, is dependent on Russian fuel and maintenance. No response has been given on a Rosatom proposal to prolong operations until 2036.

The geopolitical backdrop is stark. In recent weeks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Yerevan and signed documents strengthening military and economic ties, while Armenia and the EU sealed a strategic partnership agenda. Armenia has frozen its membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation, deepening a rift that burst open after the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova publicly mocked Armenian officials for initially denying receipt of the letter, saying the embassy had delivered it.

The coming weeks will test whether Yerevan’s diversification gamble can survive without the decades-old energy subsidies that have underpinned its economy. Pashinyan’s promise of future wealth is tied to transit routes that remain largely unrealised, while the loss of duty-free Russian gas would impose immediate costs. The election outcome may not alter the strategic trajectory—opposition figures also criticise Moscow—but the intensity of the Kremlin’s economic leverage is now squarely on the table, forcing Armenia to decide how far it is prepared to go in its westward turn.