Moscow has announced it will resume operations on the domestic currency and gold markets from May under the so‑called budget rule, a move that signals an end to the temporary suspension imposed in late March. The Ministry of Finance confirmed that the restart is intended to enhance the predictability of domestic economic conditions and to insulate Russia’s financial system from the volatility of global energy markets. The decision comes as the rouble trades at levels not seen in more than three years — the central bank set the official dollar rate at 74.83 roubles on Thursday, a trough last recorded in February 2023. The currency’s recent strength, driven by a collapse in imports and record current‑account surpluses, has become a source of unease in Moscow because it erodes the rouble value of oil revenues, the backbone of the federal budget.

Viewed from Moscow, the fiscal arithmetic is straightforward. With Urals crude averaging $106.30 a barrel in the first half of April — against a budget benchmark of $59 — the windfall is generating far more foreign currency inflows than the Treasury needs to fund the deficit. Under the budget rule, the Ministry is obliged to channel surplus oil income into the National Welfare Fund, primarily by purchasing yuan on the open market. The pause that began on 30 March had allowed the rouble to strengthen unhindered, but the Finance Ministry now judges that it can no longer afford to forgo the stabilising effect of intervention. The stockpiled purchases for March and April will be executed in May, adding to the pressure. Analysts in London note that the resumption is effectively a form of sterilised intervention — absorbing liquidity to prevent the rouble from climbing further — but warn that the sheer scale of the surplus could prove hard to manage without a sharp depreciation.

The reaction from currency markets was immediate. On the Moscow Exchange the yuan rose more than one per cent against the rouble on news of the restart, while the dollar and euro also gained. The central bank has revised its average dollar forecast for 2026 down from 84 to 81.2 roubles, but many private economists see the fair value closer to 70. Yet such levels, while welcome for consumers, are politically awkward: a persistently strong rouble weakens the budget’s purchasing power at a time when military spending is driving record outlays. The broader context is that Western sanctions have largely cut Russia off from traditional reserve‑currency accumulation, forcing the Treasury to rely on yuan. Viewed from Washington, the resumption of yuan‑heavy interventions is a reminder of how the global financial architecture is fragmenting, with Russia’s fiscal tools increasingly tethered to Beijing.

Looking ahead, the most immediate consequence is that the rouble’s recent rally is unlikely to endure. The Ministry’s purchases will drain rouble liquidity and push the currency lower, though the extent of the slide will depend on global oil prices. If Urals stays above $100 a barrel, the intervention volumes will be large enough to weaken the rouble back towards 80‑82 per dollar by mid‑year, in line with the central bank’s own revised forecast. The risk is that a sharper depreciation re‑stokes inflation, which remains stubbornly above the Bank of Russia’s target. For now, the Kremlin is betting that the budget rule’s renewed operation — delayed but not abandoned — offers a calibrated tool to balance fiscal discipline against currency stability. Whether it can do so without re‑igniting price pressures is the question that will occupy investors and policymakers alike through the northern summer.