A powerful El Niño is taking shape in the tropical Pacific, and early projections suggest it could become the strongest event since the devastating 1997-98 episode, persisting well into 2027. The latest multi-model ensemble forecast from North American agencies paints a striking picture of extensive warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that the phenomenon is already underway and is likely to reach “strong to very strong” levels. Viewed from Washington, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate models have alarmed scientists, with one researcher describing the data as a shock. This is not merely a seasonal anomaly; it is a multi-year climate disruption in the making.

The El Niño alert lands at a moment when the human cost of climate extremes is already starkly visible. UNICEF this week published an analysis showing that more than one billion children – nearly half the global total – live in areas exposed to at least three simultaneous climate hazards. The most common combination is drought, extreme heat above 35°C, and prolonged heatwaves, affecting an estimated 296 million children. The agency warns that children’s developing bodies are disproportionately vulnerable to physical and psychological pressures, and that overlapping shocks are becoming more frequent. With El Niño set to supercharge heat and drought in many regions, these numbers are likely to worsen.

In South America, the prospect of a super El Niño is forcing governments and grid operators into precautionary mode. Brazil’s national electricity operator (ONS) has begun conserving water in southern reservoirs, including Itaipu, to compensate for an expected failure of rains in the north, where strategic hydropower plants like Belo Monte, Jirau and Santo Antônio are critical for meeting peak demand. The operator’s planning director has described the northern drought risk as the “principal concern” for supply security. Meanwhile, Colombian cities are bracing for extreme heat: Medellín, already ranked among the world’s 200 most heat-vulnerable cities, expects the El Niño to peak in intensity between November and January. Argentina’s meteorological service projects a warmer-than-average winter for 2026, though it cautions that isolated cold air incursions remain possible. Agricultural analysts across the region warn of volatile production for beef, cocoa, coffee and sugar as rainfall patterns fracture.

The picture is equally unsettled across the Pacific and Indian Ocean rims. Indian forecasters fear the monsoon could be disrupted, with knock-on effects for food production and water availability. In Bangladesh, meteorologists are drawing parallels with the 1997 super El Niño, which triggered severe droughts and floods worldwide. Australian authorities have already linked the phenomenon to reduced winter and spring rainfall, raising concerns about wildfire risk and agricultural output. The global soft commodity trade, from Southeast Asian palm oil to East African tea, is on alert.

The gradual onset of El Niño does offer a narrow window for preparation, as UN agencies and national climate services have stressed. Yet the challenges are mounting. Brazil’s recent capacity auction, intended to bolster electricity reserves, was deemed insufficient by the grid operator to fully resolve stability problems, and the country’s audit court has allowed the contracts to proceed only under continued scrutiny. The expansion of intermittent renewables is deepening the “duck curve” – the steep ramp in net demand when solar generation falls off in the evening – making battery storage and flexible power sources ever more critical. As the planet enters what could be a prolonged climate stress test, the capacity of institutions to manage overlapping shocks will be tested like never before.