The rich world’s baby deficit is deepening, with Australia recording a fertility rate of just 1.48 in 2024—a record low that has provoked soul-searching over policy failure. In Germany, a new study reveals that two-thirds of adults regard the cost of child-rearing as the primary barrier to parenthood, displacing older clichés about careerism. Both snapshots capture a broader malaise: across advanced economies, starting a family has become a financial gamble many feel they cannot afford.

Viewed from Berlin, the findings of the BAT Foundation survey lay bare a pervasive anxiety. Economic uncertainty, political disenchantment and patchy state support are pushing Germans to delay or forgo having children altogether. The country’s fertility rate has languished below replacement for decades, mirroring trends from Rome to Tokyo, yet the current cost-of-living crisis—driven by stubborn inflation and housing shortages—is sharpening the reluctance. Eurozone policymakers have so far failed to reverse the slide.

Half a world away in Jakarta, the calculus takes a different form but yields a similar caution. The fragility of family structures is underscored by the enduring trauma of divorce, which, as Indonesian media report, leaves even adult children grappling with emotional and practical upheaval. Such experiences inject wariness into a society where family has long been the central institution, reminding young adults that parenthood entails risks extending well beyond economic ones. In emerging economies, too, declining birth rates suggest that rising affluence does not automatically translate into larger families.

For governments from Canberra to Copenhagen, the implications are stark. Australia’s baby bust, as an editorial in The Sydney Morning Herald contends, is a failure of successive administrations to make child-rearing compatible with modern life—whether through adequate parental leave, affordable childcare or housing security. Without comprehensive reforms, the demographic drag will intensify, squeezing labour forces and straining pension systems. Analysts in London note that the fertility slump is no longer a Western peculiarity; it is a global challenge that demands a recalibration of social contracts everywhere.