South Africa’s Constitutional Court has delivered a seismic blow to President Cyril Ramaphosa, ordering parliament to establish an impeachment committee over the so-called Farmgate scandal and declaring that a 2022 vote to block such proceedings violated the constitution. The ruling, handed down by Deputy Chief Justice Mandisa Maya on Friday, effectively strips the African National Congress of the political shield it had erected around the president and reopens a crisis that nearly ended his career two years ago. The case returns to a legislature that, viewed from Pretoria, remains deeply divided between Ramaphosa loyalists and factions eager to exploit his vulnerability ahead of elections widely expected to test the ANC’s three-decade dominance.

The scandal itself revolves around the theft of $580,000 in foreign currency from a sofa inside Ramaphosa’s rural farmhouse in 2020. The origin of the cash, why it was kept in furniture rather than a bank, and whether it was declared to tax authorities have never been satisfactorily explained. Ramaphosa has consistently denied wrongdoing, but the independent panel that first investigated the matter concluded he may have a case to answer. The new impeachment committee will now probe those same questions, potentially forcing the president to testify under oath and placing his political future in the hands of a parliament where the ANC no longer holds an unassailable majority.

From London, analysts note that the court’s intervention exposes the fragility of Ramaphosa’s position within his own party. Though the ANC’s national executive has publicly reaffirmed its support, internal dissent is simmering, and the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters, whose leader Julius Malema has called for immediate resignation, have already signalled they will use the committee to extract maximum political damage. Meanwhile, viewed from Washington, the uncertainty in Pretoria raises concerns about South Africa’s role as a stabilising force in a turbulent region, particularly as the country chairs the G20 this year and attempts to mediate disputes on the African continent.

The road ahead is fraught. Parliament must now establish the committee, a process that could take weeks, and the hearings themselves will be protracted. Ramaphosa’s office has issued a terse statement saying he respects the judgement, but behind the scenes his allies are already exploring legal manoeuvres to delay or narrow the inquiry. What is certain is that the narrative of a presidency once defined by promises of renewal and clean governance has been irrevocably tarnished. Forward-looking analysis suggests that even if Ramaphosa survives the immediate impeachment push, the political capital he has lost may prove unrecoverable, leaving the ANC to face its worst electoral performance since the end of apartheid with a leader whose authority is in permanent question.