The president of Ceuta, Juan Jesús Vivas, told the European Parliament on 6 August that around 100 people died during the mass entry of roughly 72,000 migrants from Morocco into the Spanish exclave on 30–31 July. Between 3,000 and 5,000 of those who crossed remain in the city, he said, while reception centres for adults and minors are “in a state of collapse,” creating what he described as a humanitarian emergency of enormous proportions. Vivas stated that the city has not returned to normal and that its population feels “sad, helpless, anxious, fearful and worried,” with good reason to wonder whether such an event will happen again.

That fear is now focused on 15 August, the date cited in a wave of social media messages calling for a new mass crossing. Spain’s National Intelligence Centre (CNI) considers the campaign “fully credible,” according to sources cited by Cadena SER, and does not rule out that organisers might bring the date forward to exploit the element of surprise. The European Commission said it is maintaining “very high” attention before, during and after that date and is in contact with Spanish authorities, Frontex and Europol. Spanish security forces have kept more than 3,000 police, Guardia Civil and military personnel deployed in Ceuta, and the interior ministry says it has the necessary resources to respond. Madrid is also counting on Moroccan cooperation to prevent mass departures from the border area of Fnideq.

Vivas characterised the July incursion as an “unequivocal attack” and a violation of territorial integrity, and he accused Morocco of being an unreliable partner, noting that the security of Europe’s only land border with Africa depends on a country that does not recognise Spanish sovereignty over Ceuta. Spanish intelligence services have concluded that Morocco did not plan the crossing but allowed it to occur, gradually relaxing border controls during July and removing them as crowds advanced. Morocco has blamed the crisis on a Spanish Supreme Court ruling that barred summary returns of migrants intercepted at sea, and on disinformation spread by criminal networks. EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner said the bloc must use all available leverage—including visa policy, trade and development aid—to secure Moroccan cooperation, warning that as long as control depends on the goodwill of a single neighbouring state, Europe remains vulnerable.

Unaccompanied minors are the most acute humanitarian challenge. Ceuta’s authorities estimate at least 1,100 children and adolescents are in the city, while volunteer groups in the Príncipe neighbourhood have registered over 4,800. Madrid has announced a €25 million package to assist minors and a separate €6.5 million transfer for humanitarian aid, but political resistance from several Spanish regions has delayed the transfer of children to the mainland. The EU has offered additional support and is examining a Spanish needs assessment. With the 15 August date approaching, the dossier remains open as authorities race to identify and shelter the remaining migrants and as intelligence services monitor online mobilisation efforts.