President Donald Trump has predicted that Greenland will be under US control by the time he leaves office in January 2029, according to an audio interview with Real America's Voice. Asked about a prediction that Greenland would be under "operational control" before the end of his presidency, Trump replied, "You'll be right" and added, "You should make that bet." He has argued that the US needs to acquire the semi-autonomous Danish territory for national security reasons, saying that if he does not take it, American adversaries Russia and China will. The move has strained relations with European allies, who see it as a threat to Greenlanders' sovereignty.

Trump's fixation on controlling Greenland has persisted despite pushback. In January, he threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on goods from several European allies, including Denmark, until a deal was reached for the "complete and total purchase of Greenland." Tensions appeared to ease days later when Trump announced he would not impose the tariffs after a "very productive" meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte, during which, Trump said, they "formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland." Nonetheless, earlier this month, Trump posted an edited image on Truth Social showing him in the Oval Office with a map that placed an American flag over Greenland.

Experts note that the US already has extensive military access to Greenland under a 1951 defence agreement with Denmark. Kenneth Rosen, author of the book "Polar War," told Business Insider that the notion of acquiring Greenland to improve US Arctic security is a fallacy, citing decades of underinvestment in existing American territory in Alaska. Rosen said the US has not built enough resources even to protect communities in those areas. The only active US military installations in the Aleutian Islands are Eareckson Air Station and a Coast Guard unit at Dutch Harbor. The Coast Guard maintains a limited rotational presence in the Bering Sea, sometimes with only one cutter at a time. By contrast, Russia operates 42 icebreakers, including 13 heavy vessels capable of year-round operations, while the US relies on a single operational heavy icebreaker, the Polar Star.

Despite Trump's confidence, prediction markets assign low probability to the acquisition. On Polymarket, there is a four percent chance that Trump will acquire Greenland before 2027. On Kalshi, there is a 6.8 percent chance the US will acquire any new territory before 2027, rising to 22 percent before the end of Trump's term on 20 January 2029. No further formal steps by the administration have been announced since the framework discussion with NATO's secretary general.