The telephone call that Donald Trump placed to Ali al-Zaidi on Thursday, in which the American president congratulated the Iraqi premier-designate and invited him to Washington, was the most public signal yet of a potential realignment in Baghdad. Yet viewed from the capital’s political quarters, the gesture risks being overshadowed by a far messier reality. Zaidi, nominated only days ago after five months of stalemate, is already confronting demands from factions within the Shiite Coordination Framework for control of sovereign ministries — demands that, according to Iraqi sources, have left him questioning whether he can form a government at all. The same sources speak of a growing likelihood that he may step aside, plunging the country back into uncertainty.

The internal battle over cabinet posts is not merely a squabble over patronage. It reflects a deeper contest over the trajectory of the Iraqi state at a moment when the United States and Iran are each seeking to pull it in opposite directions. Trump’s invitation to Zaidi, combined with his earlier opposition to the pro-Tehran candidacy of Nouri al-Maliki, marks a clear attempt to cultivate a leader who might distance Baghdad from Iranian influence. From Tehran’s perspective, however, the move is viewed with suspicion. The Coordination Framework is a coalition of Shiite blocs that includes parties and militias long aligned with Iran, and any cabinet that excludes or marginalises them would risk provoking a backlash — possibly from the very streets that some of those factions control.

Washington’s enthusiasm must therefore be weighed against the brittleness of Zaidi’s mandate. Analysts in London note that Trump’s call, and his social-media message that Iraq should have a government “free from terrorism”, amounts to a public test of Zaidi’s ability to resist pressure from armed factions. Yet the premier-designate must also secure the approval of those same factions in parliament, and his room for manoeuvre is narrow. The Iranian response has been notably muted in public but, according to reports, privately angry: Tehran had expected its preferred candidate, Maliki, to return to office, and the sudden emergence of Zaidi — a lesser-known figure — has been read as a diplomatic defeat.

Looking ahead, the most plausible outcome is a prolonged period of horse-trading, with Zaidi attempting to satisfy Washington’s demand for distance from Iran while offering enough portfolios to keep the Coordination Framework intact. Whether that balance can be achieved before the constitutional deadline for forming a government remains uncertain. What is clear is that Trump has placed a large bet on a man who has yet to prove he can navigate the labyrinth of Iraqi politics. The invitation to Washington will remain open only as long as Zaidi can deliver a cabinet that meets American expectations — and that may prove to be the hardest part of the assignment.