President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that Iran would be “hit very hard” unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened “very soon”, while simultaneously signalling that a diplomatic agreement could be announced within 48 hours. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said the two sides had held “an all-day negotiation” and described the discussions as “very good”, adding that a deal might be reached “tomorrow or the next day”. He linked the reopening of the strait directly to Iran’s nuclear programme, stating that “they cannot have a nuclear weapon, it’s very simple”, and claimed that Tehran had previously requested talks to avert a massive US strike.

Viewed from Washington, the administration expressed confidence that an interim arrangement was close. The Axios news site, citing unnamed regional and US officials, reported that the United States, Iran and Oman were preparing to announce a 60-day safe-passage agreement as early as Wednesday. Under the reported terms, inbound vessels would use a northern lane through Iranian territorial waters, outbound traffic would transit a southern lane through Omani waters, and no tolls would be charged during the initial period. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that “advances” had been made in talks with Iran and Oman, but stressed that no definitive deal had been concluded.

Tehran, however, denied that direct negotiations with Washington were taking place. Iranian state media, citing an informed source, said any agreement on the strait would be delayed “as long as the United States continues to threaten Iran”. Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that discussions with Oman were focused on establishing safe shipping lanes and ensuring the sovereign rights of both coastal states. Qatar’s government said mediators were making progress, and Trump discussed efforts to narrow differences with the Qatari emir in a phone call on Tuesday, though Doha has avoided facilitating direct contacts between the two adversaries.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally pass, has been a central front in the conflict that began on 28 February when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. A previous ceasefire and preliminary agreement in April collapsed within weeks, and attacks on commercial shipping have persisted. On Tuesday, a cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile near the strait, and an Indian-flagged vessel sank in the Red Sea after being hit. Oil prices eased on Wednesday on hopes of a deal, but the situation remains volatile, with Iran-aligned Houthi rebels threatening to escalate attacks on Saudi-linked tankers. The US has reported 18 military personnel killed since the war began, while Iran has reported more than 3,400 deaths.