President Donald Trump has escalated America’s confrontation with Cuba to a level that even Havana describes as unprecedented, threatening to dispatch the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to within a hundred metres of the island’s coast and proclaiming that the United States will “take control” of Cuba “almost immediately” once operations in Iran conclude. The remarks, delivered at a private fundraiser in Palm Beach, Florida, were swiftly followed by an executive order broadening economic sanctions to target any non-American entity doing business on the island, with a particular focus on energy, mining, finance and security. From Havana, President Miguel Díaz-Canel denounced the combination of rhetorical and economic warfare as “dangerous and unprecedented”, warning that the international community must decide whether to permit what he called “a radical criminal act” aimed at satisfying a wealthy, vengeful exile lobby.

Cuban foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez dismissed the sanctions as illegal and abusive, pointing out that they were announced on International Workers’ Day, when millions of Cubans were marching against the existing blockade and the energy siege that has caused rolling blackouts and fuel shortages. Viewed from Washington, the administration appears to be seeking a short, clear and historic victory ahead of the midterm elections, drawing on the playbook deployed against Venezuela. European and Latin American capitals have reacted with alarm, recalling the destabilising effect of unilateral coercive measures and naval brinkmanship.

Analysts in London note that the widening of secondary sanctions could drive remaining international partners off the island, threatening key lifelines such as Turkey’s Karpowership, which operates an energy barge in Havana, and Canada’s Sherritt International, a major mining firm. For Cuba, the stark deterioration leaves it isolated and economically battered, yet the leadership projects defiance. Díaz-Canel, flanked by former president Raúl Castro at the May Day march, insisted that “fear does not eat here” and that no aggressor, however powerful, would find surrender.

As the USS Abraham Lincoln steams home from the Middle East, the question rippling from Miami to Mexico City is whether Trump’s words are bluster or a prelude to action. The answer may determine not only the fate of the island but the credibility of US power projection in a hemisphere already wary of coercion. What began as sanctions has become a standoff with the potential to rewrite the rules of inter-American relations.

The coming weeks will test whether diplomacy or the threat of force prevails, and whether the international community has the will to enforce the very UN Charter that Washington now appears ready to ignore.