A dramatic escalation unfolded over the weekend as Ukraine and Russia exchanged hundreds of drones and missiles, killing at least a dozen civilians and striking deep into each other’s territory. The most significant development came from Kyiv, which claimed to have hit three Russian oil tankers, a cruise-missile carrier, and a patrol boat in separate attacks on the Baltic port of Primorsk and another southern terminal. President Zelensky described the tankers as part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to evade Western sanctions, while the port fire — confirmed by regional governor Alexander Drozdenko — forced a halt to operations at one of Russia’s largest oil export hubs.

On the Russian side, a Ukrainian drone struck a luxury residential tower on Mosfilmovskaya Street in Moscow, less than seven kilometres from the Kremlin. The rare penetration of the capital’s air defences came days before the annual Victory Day parade, which Moscow has already scaled back over security concerns. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said no casualties were reported, but the strike shattered windows across several upper floors. Earlier, Russian forces launched 268 drones and a ballistic missile against Ukrainian cities overnight, killing ten people and wounding at least 76 across five regions. In Odesa, two died when drones hit residential buildings and port infrastructure; in Kherson, a man was killed as a drone struck his car.

Viewed from the border regions, the cost is equally stark. In Russia’s Belgorod oblast, a Ukrainian drone attack on a family car killed a father and his 21-year-old son, while six other civilians were wounded in separate strikes on vehicles and apartment blocks. The Russian defence ministry claimed to have intercepted 117 drones over 14 regions in a single night, a number that rose to 334 when including earlier waves. Yet the scale of the Ukrainian response — targeting not just oil infrastructure but a warship in the Black Sea — suggests a deliberate strategy to disrupt Russia’s energy exports and military logistics ahead of any spring offensive.

Analysts in London note that Ukraine’s strikes on Primorsk and the Tuapse refinery, whose oil slick now drifts towards Putin’s Gelendzhik residence, are designed to impose long-term economic costs while signalling that no Russian asset is safe. Meanwhile, the Moscow drone hit — the first to damage a building inside the city centre in months — undercuts the Kremlin’s narrative of domestic security just as it prepares to commemorate the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. The pent-up symbolism is not lost on either side. As Zelensky warned that prolonging the war would only expand Ukraine’s “defensive operations,” Russian lawmakers in Moscow called for intensified strikes on Ukrainian energy and military targets. With both capitals now within drone range and the front line frozen, the conflict is evolving into a battle of attrition waged not only on the battlefield but in the skies over civilian neighbourhoods and critical infrastructure. The next few weeks will test whether either side can sustain this tempo — or whether the mutual damage will force a recalculation.