The United States is waiting for Iran’s formal reply to a proposed peace agreement, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating in Rome on Friday that Washington anticipates an answer “in the next few hours”. Speaking after meetings with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Leo XIV, Rubio expressed hope that Tehran’s response would be serious enough to launch a structured negotiation process. The statement comes exactly one month into a fragile ceasefire between the two powers, a truce that has already been tested by overnight clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes.

Those exchanges, in which both sides accused each other of triggering violence, included reports that Iranian forces seized a commercial vessel. The episode rattled global energy markets and revived fears of a broader return to open conflict. From Tehran’s perspective, the creation of a new authority to approve transit through the strait is a sovereign assertion; viewed from Washington, it amounts to an unacceptable attempt to control an international waterway. Rubio called the move an effort to “normalise” something that cannot be allowed to stand.

Yet the diplomatic path remains fraught. Saudi sources have confirmed to AFP that Riyadh refused to grant the US military access to its airspace or bases for any operation to force open shipping lanes, a reminder that even regional allies are wary of being drawn into a direct confrontation. Pakistani mediators have been shuttling between the parties, and it was through them that Washington transmitted its latest proposal. Analysts in London note that Iran’s internal fragmentation complicates any single response, while European capitals watch with unease, aware that a collapse of the ceasefire could trigger a wider maritime crisis.

For now, the ball is in Tehran’s court. Rubio’s carefully worded appeal for a “serious offer” reflects both hope and guarded realism. The next few hours will determine whether the ceasefire holds and talks can proceed, or whether the Strait of Hormuz becomes once again the flashpoint for a conflict that neither side can afford but both seem unable to escape.