The United States’ top trade official has set out a two-stage timetable for renegotiating the continental trade pact, telling the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday that he hopes to put provisional agreements before President Donald Trump, Canada and Mexico before the end of 2026. Jamieson Greer said more difficult chapters — notably automotive rules of origin, labour standards and environmental provisions — would require deeper discussion, including with Congress, and would extend into 2027. “I would love to have, by the end of the year, at least some agreements — one with Canada, one with Mexico,” Greer testified, before departing for Mexico City to join a third round of bilateral talks.

Viewed from Washington, the phased approach reflects an administration that is simultaneously sceptical of a full renewal and determined to use leverage. Greer insisted the objective is to strengthen regional production and prevent trade from benefiting China or Vietnam. Yet Trump has called the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) “obsolete” and, on 1 July, opted not to renew it, triggering a process of annual reviews that could run for a decade. Unless all three parties agree to an extension, the pact will expire in 2036. In parallel, the White House has intensified pressure on Ottawa: Trump threatened 50 per cent tariffs on a range of Canadian goods within 30 days, a move Greer linked to provincial bans on American alcohol, Canada’s supply-managed dairy system and quotas on US vehicles.

Ottawa and Mexico City have both signalled they want a 16-year renewal, not a sequence of yearly reviews. Mexico has already opened formal negotiations with the US, and Greer was due to meet President Claudia Sheinbaum and Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard on Thursday. Canada, by contrast, has yet to begin similar discussions with Washington, a disparity that has fed business uncertainty across all three economies. Greer acknowledged that some elements of the existing agreement remain valid, but his testimony made clear that the most consequential decisions on the architecture of North American trade will not be settled this year.

The USMCA was itself renegotiated during Trump’s first term to replace NAFTA, and the current review is the first major test of its built-in renewal mechanism. Greer’s remarks are the clearest indication yet that the administration envisages a negotiation in tranches: first, achievable interim understandings, then a longer struggle over the rules that determine how much of a car must be made in North America to qualify for duty-free treatment. The Senate hearing also surfaced Democratic criticism that threatened tariffs would leave Canada facing higher duties than China on some products, a charge Greer said he would examine but suspected applied only to a narrow set of goods. With the US and Mexican teams already at the table and Greer’s visit under way, the dossier now moves to a series of technical sessions in Mexico City covering steel, aluminium, autos, agriculture and digital payments, while Ottawa awaits its own formal opening.