The United States has formally ended its offensive military campaign against Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirming on Tuesday that Operation Epic Fury “achieved its objectives” and will not be extended. The announcement, delivered from the White House briefing room, marks a decisive pivot from two months of active hostilities to what the Trump administration calls “Project Freedom” – a naval mission focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and rescuing merchant crews trapped by the blockade. Viewed from Washington, the timing was dictated as much by legal constraints as by strategic calculation: the operation had reached a sixty-day threshold requiring congressional authorisation, and the White House had already notified lawmakers that hostilities were concluded.

Rubio stressed that the new phase is defensive in posture, though he warned that American forces would respond with “lethal effectiveness” if attacked. The shift, analysts in London note, reflects an acknowledgement that prolonged strikes risked escalating into a broader regional war without guaranteeing the strait’s reopening. From Tehran’s perspective, however, the announcement carries its own complications.

Iranian officials have declared that all maritime traffic through the waterway – which lies adjacent to Iranian territorial waters – must now be coordinated with Tehran, asserting a de facto right of oversight that Washington’s Project Freedom explicitly challenges. The diplomatic track, meanwhile, remains active. Rubio confirmed that presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner are pursuing a negotiated resolution, describing the search for a diplomatic solution as “essential”.

On the nuclear file, the secretary indicated that negotiations extend beyond enrichment levels to the disposition of Iran’s existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium, stored at an undisclosed deep site – a matter he declined to detail further. Yet for all the talk of transition, the situation on the ground remains fraught. Regional analysts point out that Rubio himself acknowledged the future trajectory of events remains “within the realm of speculation”.

Ten civilians have already died in the strait, according to US figures, and while Washington insists it will not initiate fire, the prospect of a naval confrontation between American and Iranian forces over passage rights is far from hypothetical. The coming weeks will test whether diplomacy can fill the space vacated by bombs, or whether the closure of one military chapter merely opens another in a different key.