The United States has delivered a unequivocal message to Mexico on the eve of critical talks: the tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump are here to stay. During preparatory meetings in Mexico City, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer privately informed industry leaders that 'we will never return to a world without tariffs,' a stance that fundamentally alters the terrain for the upcoming review of the USMCA trade pact.

Greer's visit, which included dialogues with President Claudia Sheinbaum and senior cabinet members, was framed as a discussion on the treaty's long-term vision. Yet, from the outset, negotiations focused squarely on contentious issues—the Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminium, and autos, alongside U.S. concerns over intellectual property piracy. While Mexican officials publicly emphasised a shared commitment to maintaining the agreement, technical sessions revealed a stark divergence, with Washington refusing to entertain the removal of these levies.

Viewed from Mexico City, the U.S. position has injected significant uncertainty into the process. The country's business elite, including magnates like Carlos Slim Domit, who met privately with Greer, had hoped the review would bring relief. Instead, as conveyed by leading business councils, the American delegation has adopted a 'harder' line than in previous dialogues. Confederations like CONCANACO SERVYTUR are now urgently calling for a 'level playing field' and political responsibility to protect investment and employment, highlighting the strategic importance of sectors beyond manufacturing.

Analysts in Washington interpret this rigidity as a core tenet of Trump's trade philosophy, where tariffs are seen not as temporary tools but as permanent leverage. The administration is keen to strengthen rules of origin and address piracy, using the tariffs as a cudgel to extract concessions. This perspective suggests a deliberate shift from classic free trade principles, aiming to recalibrate the terms of North American economic integration in favour of U.S. interests.

As formal bilateral negotiations commence on 25 May, the path forward appears constrained. Mexico may seek offsets in areas like services, logistics, and tourism integration, but the entrenched U.S. stance on tariffs limits substantive progress. Observers in Ottawa and other capitals note that this review could cement a more protectionist regional order, testing the resilience of a treaty designed to foster unity, and setting a precedent for managed trade over open markets.