The World Gold Council’s latest quarterly demand report, released on 30 July, delivered a sobering correction to the globe’s most closely watched gold-buying metric. First-quarter central-bank purchases, originally estimated at 244 tonnes, were revised down to just 57 tonnes after consultancy Metals Focus reclassified the difference as over-the-counter demand. That is the weakest opening quarter in well over a decade. Yet the official sector rebounded forcefully between April and June, adding a net 289 tonnes – a record for the second quarter and a 62 per cent year-on-year increase. The swing helped lift total gold demand in the first half to 2,522 tonnes, up 2 per cent, with a record dollar value of $380 billion.

Broader demand patterns reflected the metal’s volatile price path. The London Bullion Market Association average price in the second quarter was $4,506.29 an ounce, 8 per cent below the all-time quarterly record set at the start of the year but still 37 per cent higher than a year earlier. Spot gold ended June near $4,008, roughly one-quarter below the January peak of $5,595. The pullback triggered 45 tonnes of outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds, while bar and coin investment slipped 3 per cent to 307 tonnes. Over-the-counter activity, heavily concentrated in Asia, absorbed 327 tonnes, bringing the half-year tally to 571 tonnes. Jewellery volume fell 17 per cent to 278 tonnes – the lowest since the pandemic – as high prices squeezed consumers toward lighter pieces, though the value of jewellery demand rose 22 per cent to $86 billion. On the supply side, mine production increased 2 per cent to 966 tonnes, partly from new output in Canada and Chile, while recycling dropped 6 per cent to 326 tonnes.

Poland was the quarter’s biggest official buyer, acquiring 51 tonnes to lift its reserves to 632 tonnes. China added 33 tonnes, followed by Uzbekistan (16 tonnes) and Kazakhstan (15 tonnes). The Bank of Russia emerged as the largest seller, offloading 22 tonnes; Turkey and Germany also modestly reduced holdings. A survey conducted by the Council found that 45 per cent of respondent central banks intend to increase their gold reserves over the next twelve months – a record share – while 89 per cent expect global official gold reserves to rise.

Louise Street, senior market analyst at the World Gold Council, said investment would likely be the main growth driver in the second half of 2026, with over-the-counter and Asian demand playing an increasingly important role. She expects central banks to remain key buyers, though at a slower pace than in the past four years, and warned that elevated prices will continue to weigh on jewellery volumes. The next factual milestone will be whether the structural support from official-sector demand persists as interest-rate expectations evolve.