One hundred days before Americans vote on 3 November, the Republican Party of President Donald Trump confronts a high probability of losing its House majority and a narrowing path to retaining the Senate, according to polling averages and election forecasters. The US elections website Decision Desk HQ assesses a 59 per cent chance that Democrats capture the House, projecting a 224–211 majority. Historically, the president’s party sheds seats in midterm contests, a pattern that Sarah Binder, professor of political science at George Washington University, notes is especially pronounced when the incumbent is unpopular. A New York Times polling average puts Trump’s approval at 39 per cent, with 59 per cent disapproving.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has centred his party’s campaign on living costs, pledging to drive down prices of groceries, fuel, housing and health care. He told supporters that “Donald Trump and Republicans have failed the American people.” Internal Democratic polling, cited by the party, suggests voters now trust them more than Republicans on inflation, health care and even immigration—a traditional Republican strength—as petrol prices climb above $4 a gallon amid the war with Iran and inflation remains elevated. Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, frame the election as a choice between “common sense” and an increasingly left-wing Democratic Party, highlighting border enforcement and tax cuts while portraying opponents as aligned with the socialist left.

Both parties have redrawn congressional maps to secure safe seats, yet Republicans are expected to emerge with a net advantage of between five and twelve seats. Professor Binder told Agence France-Presse that redistricting has “pared back the grounds on which Democrats can contest those seats,” leaving fewer than one in twenty House races as genuine toss-ups. The party also enters the final stretch with a substantial financial lead: Republican campaign committees and allied groups hold tens of millions of dollars more than their Democratic counterparts.

In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53–47 edge, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Decision Desk HQ narrowly favours Republicans to retain control through a 50–50 split, with Vice-President JD Vance casting tie-breaking votes. Political analyst Chuck Todd observed that Republicans have moved from “clear favourites” to “very small favourites” over nine months. A Democratic House would give the party control of powerful committees and subpoena authority, likely subjecting Trump’s administration to two years of investigations and, according to multiple reports, a possible third impeachment effort. Trump has revived unfounded claims of electoral fraud, urging congressional Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act, which Democrats condemn as an attempt to suppress legitimate votes. The midterm elections will be held on 3 November, with all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats on the ballot.