The pre-match manoeuvring for the first World Cup semi-final was dominated by a single, repeated assertion from the France camp: Spain are the favourites. Speaking in Dallas on Monday, Didier Deschamps pointed to Spain’s status as European champions and their victories in the last two meetings between the sides – the Euro 2024 semi-final and last year’s Nations League last four – to shift the burden of expectation onto Luis de la Fuente’s team. The Spain coach dismissed the label as irrelevant, while his teenage forward Lamine Yamal, who turned 19 on the eve of the match, offered a blunt counter. “If anyone should be afraid, it’s them,” he said, referencing the recent head-to-head record. The verbal sparring framed a contest that European analysts describe as a clash of antagonistic styles.

France have powered into the last four with the tournament’s most potent attack, scoring 16 goals in six matches. Kylian Mbappé, with eight goals, is level with Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot, while Ousmane Dembélé has added five and Michael Olise leads the assist charts. Deschamps’ side have not required extra time in any knockout tie, dispatching Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco with a blend of verticality and individual brilliance. Spain’s path has been more measured. After a goalless draw with Cape Verde in their opener, they have conceded only once – a record-breaking 650-minute shutout for goalkeeper Unai Simón – and relied on late interventions from substitute Mikel Merino to edge past Portugal and Belgium. Their possession-based game, anchored by Rodri and Pedri, has produced 11 goals, with Yamal yet to fully ignite after a hamstring injury.

The tactical battleground will likely be defined by France’s transitions against Spain’s control of the ball. Observers in Madrid note that De la Fuente has urged his side to “impose our style” and take the initiative, while Deschamps has highlighted the danger of Spain’s high defensive line and the need to limit Yamal’s influence. The only previous World Cup meeting, a last-16 tie in 2006, ended in a 3-1 French victory, but the recent semi-final defeats have left a mark on the French squad. Midfielder Adrien Rabiot insisted there is “no fear” in the camp, and Deschamps confirmed Mbappé is fully fit after an ankle knock against Morocco.

The match carries historical weight beyond the rivalry. It is the first time the top four teams in the FIFA rankings have all reached the semi-finals, and all four are former world champions. For France, a win would secure a third consecutive final appearance, a feat matched only by Brazil and Germany. The fixture falls on Bastille Day, adding a layer of national symbolism. The winner will face either Argentina or England in Sunday’s final at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, while the loser heads to Miami for the third-place play-off.