A fragile peace in the Middle East took a decisive step forward on Sunday when American and Iranian officials announced a framework agreement to end hostilities, lift the United States naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. The deal, mediated by Pakistan with support from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, was immediately reflected in global energy markets as crude prices dipped on the prospect of resumed oil flows through the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Geneva, where Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament and head of its nuclear negotiating team, and JD Vance, the US vice-president and chief American negotiator, are expected to affix their signatures to the memorandum.

Viewed from the United Nations headquarters in New York, the accord was hailed by Secretary-General António Guterres as a “crucial step towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict”. In a joint statement, Britain, France, Germany and Italy welcomed the ceasefire but underscored a red line that will dominate the next phase of diplomacy: “Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon.” The European powers signalled readiness to work with Washington, Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency to build a verifiable non-proliferation framework. Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, added Canberra’s voice to the chorus of approval, while Japan urged all sides to seize the momentum. A note of caution came from Ankara, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned that the accord’s durability would depend on robust implementation and equitable burden-sharing among regional stakeholders.

The breakthrough follows months of open warfare and uneasy truces triggered by coordinated US-Israeli strikes in late February that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior commanders. The conflict, which drew in proxies across Lebanon and threatened to engulf the Gulf, had effectively sealed Iran’s coastline under a maritime cordon, strangling its oil exports and rattling global supply chains. Donald Trump, writing on his Truth Social platform, cast the agreement as a historic personal victory, claiming that “many presidents tried to make peace with Iran and all failed before me.” Yet analysts in London note that the memorandum is best understood as a structured pause rather than a final settlement: it mandates an immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, but defers the nuclear question to a subsequent round of technical negotiations.

Speaking to CNBC, Vice-President Vance outlined a two-stage verification mechanism designed to ensure Iranian compliance, alongside what he described as a long-term commitment that Iran will never produce or acquire a nuclear weapon. He also expressed confidence that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open without tolls and that figures within Israel would ultimately accept the arrangement. The coming days will test that confidence. Preliminary talks among mediators are already under way to prepare the ground for the Geneva ceremony, but the path from a memorandum of understanding to a durable, enforceable treaty remains strewn with political and technical obstacles. For now, the prospect of a reopened strait and silenced guns offers a measure of relief to a region—and a global economy—that has been living on a knife-edge.