霍尔木兹海峡：关闭后流量锐减
伊朗再关霍尔木兹海峡，通行量骤降但未完全中断，美伊数据分歧凸显。
伊朗革命卫队周六再度宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，回应以色列对黎巴嫩打击。船舶追踪显示周日通行量骤降至12艘（Windward）或5艘（Kpler），但卡塔尔LNG船和沙特油轮仍穿越。美中央司令部称周六55艘通过，分析指许多船只关闭AIS隐形航行导致数据分歧。
伊朗海峡管理局发布规则要求船舶申请许可并披露信息，威胁处罚和未来收费。分析家克拉克指此举违反海洋法公约过境通行权。伊朗试图常态化协调以最终征收通行费，摩根大通估算年收入可达700-900亿美元。关闭既是施压以色列的杠杆，也是财政布局，美伊沟通机制脆弱。
Windward数据显示65%原油出口目的地为中国。亚洲股市多数上涨，恒生逆势跌0.7%，布伦特原油跌0.9%至80美元下方，市场未定价全面封锁。日本海湾船舶降至37艘，韩国船通行，卡塔尔LNG出口受限但船舶出动。伊朗称逾2500万桶原油越过封锁线，受制裁油轮驶离。
美伊瑞士会谈讨论安全通行机制，JMIC称交通增加，船舶使用两侧航道。克拉克森报告趋势积极但远低于战前125艘次。节点在于停火延期能否转为永久协议，以及沟通机制能否稳定通行。黎巴嫩升级或伊朗执法可能再次扼紧海峡，威胁亚洲能源安全。
| 大西洋／英语圈媒体 | −0.60 | critical |
|---|---|---|
| 以色列媒体 | −0.70 | critical |
| 阿拉伯海湾媒体 | +0.20 | neutral |
| 拉丁美洲媒体 | −0.20 | neutral |
Americans question the value of the Iran war as Trump's approval sinks to a new low.
Poll data is used to create a narrative of public disillusionment, making the war seem unpopular and politically damaging.
The Atlantic bloc omits the strategic rationale for the war and the perspective of US allies like Israel, focusing solely on domestic costs.
Israel warns that the emerging deal with Iran is a strategic disaster that emboldens the enemy and endangers the region.
The bloc uses a 'slippery slope' argument, portraying any concession as leading to greater threats, and invokes historical lessons of appeasement.
The Israeli bloc omits the potential benefits of de-escalation and the economic pressures on Iran, as well as the fact that the talks include a 60-day roadmap.
The Gulf region is diversifying its trade routes and welcoming peace talks as a way to stabilize energy markets.
The bloc highlights concrete infrastructure projects and market reactions to show that the region is not panicking but rather planning for the long term.
The Gulf bloc omits the security risks to Gulf states from a potential Iranian closure of the Strait, and the military dimensions of the conflict.
The US military establishment asks for an $80 billion war supplement, signaling the high price of the Iran campaign.
The bloc uses a simple cost disclosure to imply criticism, letting the large number speak for itself.
The Latin American bloc omits any discussion of the strategic objectives or the progress of peace talks, focusing only on the budget request.