The most significant development to emerge from the 48th ASEAN summit, convened this week in the Philippine city of Cebu, was not the customary calls for regional solidarity but a direct plea for a negotiated end to the conflict between the United States and Iran. According to a draft communiqué seen by Reuters, the bloc's leaders will formally urge both sides to reach a mediated solution and press for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The language reflects a stark reality: Southeast Asia, heavily reliant on Gulf crude, is absorbing the full force of an energy shock that threatens to destabilise economies from Manila to Jakarta. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. acknowledged as much in his opening remarks, warning that the bloc must “remain agile” in the face of “profound uncertainty” and urging a unified response to challenges that stretch far beyond the region's traditional maritime disputes.

The energy crisis has come to dominate the summit with a force that few anticipated. Viewed from capitals across the region, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after American and Israeli strikes on Iran has severed a critical artery for oil and gas flows, sending spot prices soaring and exposing the vulnerability of import-dependent ASEAN members. Analysts in London note that the crisis has forced long-standing issues—ranging from the South China Sea to Myanmar’s civil war—to the back burner. In his remarks, Marcos framed energy security as a matter of collective resilience, calling for stronger coordination and the rapid implementation of a fuel-sharing agreement among member states. The draft statement echoes this urgency, urging members to complete domestic ratification processes for the pact “as quickly as possible” to create a regional buffer against further supply disruptions.

Into this void of anxiety and shortage has stepped China. As the war drags on, Beijing has deepened its influence with fuel-starved neighbours, offering to ease shortages through state-to-state deals while aggressively promoting its renewable energy technology. Yet the calculus is not entirely benevolent. In the days immediately following the attack on Iran, China banned exports of refined oil products, a move that analysts in Washington say squeezed the very same Asian countries now petitioning Beijing for relief. Unlike the rest of the region, China is dealing from a position of strength: it is the world’s largest crude importer but has spent decades reducing its dependence on foreign oil, amassing vast strategic reserves and investing heavily in clean energy. This asymmetry gives Beijing formidable leverage at a time when its neighbours have few alternatives.

Amid the broader anxiety, there were flashes of diplomatic progress. Thailand and Cambodia issued a joint statement of solidarity that observers in Bangkok described as a rare bright spot in a summit otherwise consumed by the energy emergency. But the overriding question, viewed from Jakarta and Singapore, is whether ASEAN can maintain its vaunted unity under such pressure. The call for a US-Iran deal signals a pragmatic, if uncomfortable, recognition that the region’s stability now depends on powers far beyond its own decision-making circles. Whether the bloc can translate its drafted appeals into concrete diplomatic traction—or whether it will drift further into dependence on Beijing—will define its relevance in the months ahead. For now, the leaders have acknowledged the scale of the challenge; the harder task of forging a coherent response lies ahead.