Meteorological agencies including Brazil’s Inmet and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service predict that the El Niño now under way will intensify to “strong” or “very strong” levels between August and December 2026, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific exceeding 2°C — a threshold often labelled a “super El Niño”. The Brazilian government, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, responded on 29 July by announcing a R$1.335bn (about $260mn) contingency plan, the largest such package in the country’s history for a climate phenomenon.

The bulk of the funding — R$998mn — will go to food security, health and hydrological monitoring. The government will purchase 180,000 tonnes of maize and 310,000 tonnes of rice to rebuild public stocks, and distribute 350,000 food baskets to indigenous, quilombola and other vulnerable communities. A further R$337mn, authorised by a provisional measure, will reinforce environmental enforcement and firefighting, including aircraft, helicopters and 16 special vehicles, with priority command posts in Pará, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Maranhão and Tocantins. The plan is coordinated by a “Sala de Situação” that brings together 24 ministries and federal agencies.

In Brazil, the phenomenon is expected to bring more intense drought to the North and parts of the Centre-West, with heightened wildfire risk in the Amazon, Cerrado and Caatinga, while the South faces heavy rain and floods. A report by XP Investimentos notes that El Niño could also pressure energy generation, as higher temperatures boost air-conditioning demand and lower hydroelectric output may force the activation of more expensive thermal plants. The government has acknowledged it may need to secure diesel supplies for thermoelectric units if river levels fall too low for fuel transport in the North.

Globally, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission warns of potential humanitarian crises in several African and Latin American countries already affected by conflict and food insecurity. On commodity markets, a StoneX analysis finds that El Niño events reduce global cocoa output by 1.7% on average; the consultancy has slashed its projected 2026/27 cocoa surplus from 149,000 to just 25,000 tonnes due to the risk of a strong episode. The Brazilian government said it will hold a teleconference with all mayors to encourage local preparedness, and will keep the contingency plan under continuous review as forecasts evolve.