The presidential contest in Brazil has entered a more competitive phase, according to two nationwide polls published on Wednesday. The Genial/Quaest survey shows Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 44% to 39% in a projected second round, a margin that has shrunk from eight points in July to five. A separate Meio/Ideia poll gives the incumbent a 48.5% to 43% advantage in the same scenario. In first-round voting intentions, Quaest records Lula at 39% against Bolsonaro’s 30%, while Meio/Ideia puts the figures at 43% and 35%. Both institutes conducted fieldwork between 31 July and 3 August, with margins of error of two and 2.5 percentage points respectively.

Felipe Nunes, CEO of Quaest, attributed the senator’s recovery to two developments that have helped reorganise the right. The first is the public reconciliation between Flávio Bolsonaro and his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, which 59% of respondents viewed positively. The second is the reaction to a Supreme Court decision barring the candidate from visiting his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a prison sentence at home. A majority of those polled, 52%, considered the judicial restriction wrong, a view that reached 83% among non-Bolsonaro right-wing voters. Nunes noted that these factors have acted as a “handbrake” on the right, allowing Flávio to regain ground among anti-PT voters.

For the president, the surveys point to a weakening of the political dividends from his economic agenda. The perception that Lula handled the US tariff increase poorly rose from 36% to 43%, according to Quaest. Meanwhile, the share of voters who see the Desenrola debt programme as a good idea fell from 55% to 47%, and among those who benefited from income-tax exemption, the proportion reporting no change in their disposable income increased. Government approval remains deeply split: Quaest registers 48% approval and 47% disapproval, while Meio/Ideia shows 48.5% approval against 49% disapproval, both within the margin of error.

The polls confirm a polarised electorate. Rejection rates for the two frontrunners are high and statistically tied, with Quaest recording 54% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 52% for Lula, and Meio/Ideia showing 48% and 47.4% respectively. Regional and religious divides persist: Lula holds a strong lead in the Northeast and among Bolsa Família recipients, while Flávio Bolsonaro performs best in the South and among evangelical voters. With the first round scheduled for October, the narrowing gap suggests a campaign in which the consolidation of the right and the perceived effectiveness of government programmes will be decisive.