The World Meteorological Organization (OMM) has warned that the El Niño phenomenon will intensify to a strong phase between August and October 2026, with sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific remaining well above normal. The agency also notes that a positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole could amplify regional effects, while the tropical Atlantic continues to record above-average temperatures. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the event is already in full development, adding that it will intensify a global pattern of extreme heat, wildfires and exceptionally warm oceans.

In Argentina, the OMM projects above-average rainfall across much of the southeast, including the north-east, the Litoral and the Pampas, raising the probability of river flooding and water-excess events. At the same time, temperatures are expected to exceed normal values, favouring heatwaves. The national government has launched a Federal Coordination Plan (ENOS 2026/2027) to improve coordination between the federal state, provinces and municipalities ahead of anticipated storms and floods. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates that the strengthening El Niño will increasingly influence atmospheric circulation, with the east of the country most exposed to heavier rains from August onward.

Viewed from global commodity markets, the phenomenon adds a third shock to food security, alongside the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 63% probability that El Niño will reach the “very strong” category this year. The World Bank has warned that rice production could fall by 20–50% in affected regions, while JPMorgan calculates that a strong El Niño combined with oil prices above $100 per barrel could lift global food inflation by up to 1.5 percentage points. The FAO’s chief economist, Máximo Torero, has flagged a “combined effect” with the delayed Indian monsoon—June rainfall was about 40% below average—that could create a very complex situation by year-end. Although global grain harvests remain near record levels, the UN says 266 million people still face acute food insecurity.

In Southeast Asia, Thailand is bracing for a Super El Niño expected by October and likely to persist into the 2027 rainy season, with rainfall projected to drop by at least 10%. The Thai Meteorological Department warns of water shortages affecting agriculture, electricity generation and industry, and the Royal Irrigation Department is preparing conservation measures. In Indonesia, heatwaves and forest fires have already been reported in Sumatra and Kalimantan, while water crises are emerging in parts of Java, including Temanggung, Sukoharjo and Lumajang. President Joko Widodo has summoned ministers to coordinate the response. The OMM projects a greater than 90% probability that El Niño will remain consolidated through the second half of 2026, and some models suggest it could persist into early 2027.